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打开红包输入BPID8YY0TP 来领红包
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#比特币流动性 $BTC 都在观望,流动性低。开个小仓赚杯奶茶🧋
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你咋那么多?
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#巨鲸动向 $BTC 今天小日本开会!加息!上回大跌,这回应该一样。
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#巨鲸动向 $BTC 一、核心观察信号(决议日紧盯) 1. 加息幅度与指引:基准预期+25bp至0.75%;超预期为+50bp或明确“持续加息”;偏鸽为维持利率/指引“高度依赖数据、渐进”。 2. BTC关键价位:支撑85000-86000美元(日线收盘价为准);阻力89000-92000美元。 3. 资金与情绪:ETF资金流向、期货多空比、美元兑日元是否破150(破则套息平仓压力上升)。 二、分场景操作预案(现货+轻杠杆通用) 1. 基准情景(+25bp+温和指引) - 表现:BTC在85000-89000震荡,小幅下探后回弹。 - 操作: - 持仓:现货持有,杠杆≤3倍的在85000设止损,89000-90000减仓1/3。 - 资金:留30%现金,回调至85500附近可小仓加仓。 2. 鹰派情景(+25bp+鹰派指引 或 +50bp) - 表现:BTC跌破85000,加速下探81000-82400。 - 操作: - 止损:现货跌破85000减仓1/2,杠杆仓全部平仓。 - 观望:不抄底,等81000-82400企稳再评估,极端下看80000心理关口。 3. 鸽派情景(维持利率 或 +25bp+极温和指引) - 表现:BTC快速反弹,冲击89000-92000。 - 操作: - 止盈:89000-90000减仓1/2,92000附近清杠杆仓。 - 追仓:若站稳90000,可小仓追至92000,止损设88500。 三、风控铁律(必执行) - 杠杆≤3倍,严禁满仓;决议前不新开高倍合约。 - 止损以日线收盘价为准,避免被短时插针扫损。 - 决议后1小时内波动大,尽量在15:30(行长发布会后)再调整仓位。
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