In trading, the boundary between genius and player is often blurred by one thing - outcome bias. This is a cognitive error of evaluating a decision solely based on its outcome, rather than the quality of the decision-making process.
🔸 Two dangerous scenarios:
You take on high risk in Allin trading, without a stop-loss, incorrect setup, but get lucky and win big money.
You tell yourself that you are a genius, this strategy is the holy grail.
👉 You will repeat this bad behavior. Happiness eventually runs out, and you revert everything back. It's like drunk driving and getting home safely; it doesn't mean you're a good driver.
You are executing disciplined trading, strict risk management, proper setup, but the market hits your Stoploss.
Imperfect thinking is when you tell yourself that this strategy is bad and leave a workable system.
🔹 To survive, evaluate yourself based on compliance, not PnL.
If you stuck to the plan but lost 👉 This is a cost of business. Accept it.
If you broke discipline but won 👉 This is hidden risk. Be afraid of it.
Don't let a successful win feed your ego, only to destroy your account tomorrow.
Did your biggest life-changing win come from careful analysis or in a moment of impulsive Allin? If the latter, are you afraid you might confuse skill with luck?
News is for reference, not investment advice. Please read carefully before making a decision.
