📈 24h Crypto Market Outlook
🔹 Technical Analysis: BTC/USDT RSI low (≈44), MACD fully bearish crossover, price below EMA50, short-term momentum biased to the downside.
🔹 Capital Flow: Over the past 4 days, net outflow from exchanges ≈5k BTC, open interest (OI) declining, short pressure increasing.
🔹 Macroeconomic Factors: Bank of Japan 12-19 expected to raise interest rates by 25bp (probability ≈70%), yen may appreciate, risk assets under pressure.
⚡ Possible Trends
Base Case (≈60%) → Consolidation downward, BTC $84‑86k. Bullish (≈25%) → If BOJ remains or is dovish, BTC rebounds to $87.5k. Bearish (≈15%) → Confirmation of rate hike, BTC breaks $84k, drops to $83k.
🔑 Key Monitoring
Whether BTC stands above/below EMA50 ($86k / $84k) Funding rate positive/negative change USD/JPY whether falls below 145
💡 Suggested Action: Wait for interest rate results, light long positions (stop loss $84.5k) or short protection. Risk Warning: US stocks, geopolitical sudden events may amplify volatility. $BTC #美国非农数据超预期
