I. Overview of Market Macroeconomic Environment & Risk Sentiment
1.1 Yield Curve and Yields & Liquidity Expectations & Central Bank Expectations
• US Treasury 10-year: Approximately 4.14% (reference as of December 18, 2025), fluctuating within the range of ~4.14–4.20% this week. Investing.com
• US Treasury 2-year: The short end remains around ≈3.50%, the yield curve remains relatively flat but is sensitive to short-term policy tools. FRED
• Liquidity / Fed Actions: The Federal Reserve/New York Fed has launched Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) as per the Implementation Note and Desk arrangements (the first month's pace and schedule have been announced, aiming to replenish reserves and manage short-term liquidity)—a key variable in current short-term liquidity and market pricing. Federal Reserve System +1
1.2 Inflation & Employment/Growth
• Inflation is gradually declining but remains above 2%; overall employment data is robust, leading the Fed to favor a more gradual approach to interest rate cuts, coupled with a combination of policy tools (interest rates + RMP). (Economic Exchange)
1.3 Stock Market and Risk/Liquidity Preference
• Broad-based/defensive sectors remained relatively stable; technology/growth sectors were highly sensitive to industry and policy news (represented by reports related to Nvidia's H200), and there were signs of short-term funds flowing back into the money market/short-term bonds. Reuters+1
1.4 Volatility/Fear Index & Crypto Market Sentiment
• VIX (Volatility Index): Approximately 16 (recent reading/weekly fluctuation), at a low to mid-range level but reacting quickly to breaking news. Yahoo Finance +1
• Crypto Fear & Greed: Official/mainstream indicators are in the "Fear / Extreme Fear" range (index ~11–22, slightly different across different vendors), reflecting a highly cautious short-term sentiment in the crypto market. Alternative.me +1
In short: The RMP has brought "short-term liquidity supply" to the forefront, leading to a short-term market divergence driven by both "liquidity signals" and "industry/event-driven factors"—overall risk appetite remains cautious. Federal Reserve System +1
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II. Core Asset Review (Stocks & Currencies)
2.1 US Broad-Based Index ETFs: VOO & QQQM
• VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF): Recently trading sideways in the ≈ $620–$635 range (influenced by macroeconomic and liquidity news). (Market reference) Investing.com
• QQQM (Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF): Its technology weighting leads to higher short-term volatility than broad-based ETFs, currently fluctuating between approximately $250 and $260. (Robin Hood)
2.2 Mainstream Crypto Assets: BTC / ETH / SOL / HYPE / BNB
• BTC: ≈ $85,990 (December 18, 2025, CoinGecko intraday value), having fallen from ~90k this week to the 86k–88k range and continuing to face downward pressure. CoinGecko
• ETH: ≈ $2,826 (December 18, 2025, CoinGecko). Significant volatility was observed during the week; on-chain and derivatives liquidity warrants attention. CoinGecko +1
• SOL: Around $120–130 (nearest value), still correcting within last week's trading range. CoinGecko
• HYPE (niche/speculative token): Price and liquidity are extremely volatile (example: low two-digit range), making it a high-risk speculative asset; always verify the contract/market depth before trading. CoinGecko
• BNB: Around $840–880 (intraday fluctuations), experiencing a pullback due to overall crypto sentiment. CoinGecko +1
2.3 Add technology / AI / encryption related targets
• TSLA (Tesla): Recently trading in the $440–$470 range (affected by sales, costs, and AI/energy-related announcements).
• NVDA (Nvidia): News surrounding H200 exports to China continues to impact market sentiment — the US has approved exports with accompanying requirements/fees (reports indicate exports have been cleared), and the market is focused on order conversion and regulatory follow-ups. Reuters+1
• META (Meta Platforms): Approximate value ≈ $640–660, with AI and advertising as the main valuation themes.
• GOOG / GOOGL (Alphabet): Near value ≈ $310–320, with short-term volatility driven by advertising and AI applications.
• CRCL (Circle): News of obtaining an ADGM/regional financial license in Abu Dhabi supports the internationalization of USDC, leading to a short-term increase in trading activity. CoinDesk +1
• HOOD (Robinhood) / COIN (Coinbase): Brokerage/exchange stocks are driven by news of listings, geographic expansion, and product innovation; Coinbase re-registers in India and plans to launch fiat currency deposits in 2026. TechCrunch +1
2.4 Pre-Stocks
• Anthropic / xAI / OpenAI PreStocks (Solana: Pren1FvF… / PreC1Kt…): Still a speculative category with extremely high Beta + contract/custody and liquidity risks; participation requires verification of contract address, custody and unlocking arrangements (high risk warning).
In short: Broad-based cryptocurrencies are stable; technology stocks are highly sensitive to policy/industry news; cryptocurrencies are experiencing increased volatility under the pressure of leverage and liquidity; PreStocks/HYPE are purely speculative and carry concentrated risk. CoinGecko +1
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III. Key Data Sections
3.1 VIX (Volatility Index)
• VIX ≈ 16 (recent report / week of 12/17–18), showing a clear response to news-driven shocks. Yahoo Finance +1
3.2 US Treasury Bonds 10-Year & 2-Year
• 10-year yield ≈ 4.14% (12/18); 2-year yield ≈ 3.50% (near-term), with the yield curve fluctuating between short-term tools and inflation expectations. Investing.com +1
3.3 US Dollar Index (DXY)
• DXY ≈ 98.2–98.4 (recent reference), the US dollar is relatively stable/fluctuates slightly, impacting commodities and emerging market assets. Investing.com
3.4 Liquidity (M2 & RRP / RMP)
• M2 (2025-10): $22,298.1 billion (seasonally adjusted), serving as a recent monetary base reference. FRED
• RRP/RMP (in progress): The New York Fed has announced its RMP schedule and will begin purchasing short-term bonds in batches starting December 12th (first month's total arrangement). The combination of ON-RRP/standing-repo and RMP is reshaping the distribution of reserves at the short end. Federal Home Loan Bank of New York +1
3.5 Crypto Fear & Greed
• Index: In the "Extreme Fear / Fear" range (reported 11–22 on major sites), market sentiment is highly sensitive to selling pressure/liquidity events. Alternative.me +1
3.6 Bitcoin / Gold Ratio
• Gold (Spot) ≈ $4,328–4,368/oz (slight variations across different sites, 12/18); BTC ≈ $85,990 → BTC/Gold ≈ ~19.7–20.0 (nearest value), the ratio has fallen as BTC declines (indicating a decrease in short-term risk appetite). Economic Exchange +1
In short: Data and operations show that the Fed's short-term tools (RMP + ON-RRP) were the main drivers of liquidity this week; short-term repricing of the dollar, interest rates, and precious metals/cryptocurrencies occurred within this framework. Federal Reserve System +1
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IV. Top 10 key news stories in the past 24 hours (sorted by impact, brief description)
1. New York Fed: RMP implementation continues (the first month's pace and schedule are already underway), with short-term reserves and overnight market liquidity being continuously reallocated. Federal Reserve System +1
2. Bitcoin fell back to around $86k, and the Crypto Fear & Greed indicator dropped into the extreme fear zone, mainly due to market leverage liquidation and liquidity issues. CoinGecko +1
3. Reports on Nvidia's H200 exports to China and capacity expansion continue to escalate: the US has given approval, but with conditions (fees/reviews); the market is focused on order conversion and regulatory responses. (Reuters+1)
4. Gold remains high ($4,300+), with safe-haven funds flowing in amid macroeconomic uncertainty and crypto volatility. (Economic Exchange)
5. Circle receives ADGM/Regional Financial License from Abu Dhabi, drawing attention to USDC's internationalization in the Middle East. CoinDesk +1
6. Coinbase relaunches Indian registration and plans fiat currency deposits in 2026 (India relaunch strategy progresses). TechCrunch +1
7. Brokerage/exchange stocks (COIN/HOOD/CRCL) are seeing increased short-term trading opportunities due to news regarding listing/compliance/geographic expansion. Reuters+1
8. Institutions and academia discussed the nature and long-term impact of the RMP (with disagreement over whether it constitutes a "technical expansion"). (Financial Times)
9. On-chain volatility related to speculation and unlocking continues in Solana and smaller cryptocurrencies (such as HYPE), and contract risks have been repeatedly highlighted. (CoinGecko)
10. Market Micro-Data: Significant short-term crypto liquidation amounts and exchange fund flows suggest that short-term volatility has not subsided. Financial Research Office +1
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V. Recommendation Strategy + Overall Summary
Recommended strategy (short to medium term)
• Phased Investing with Flexibility: During the RMP implementation period and before industry news is fully verified, it is advisable to build positions in broad-based indices (VOO) and Nasdaq indices (QQQM) in phases while maintaining cash/short-term debt hedging. Investing.com +1
• Short-term hedging and risk aversion: Allocate a small portion of your portfolio to short-term bonds, money market funds, or gold ETFs (to hedge against overnight/short-term interest rate volatility and risk aversion). Economic Exchange +1
• Technology/AI (NVDA): Treat the positive news from the H200 as "announced but still needing confirmation"—if orders and shipments materialize, consider adding to positions in batches during pullbacks; if regulatory/approval processes are inconsistent, consider reducing positions or implementing strict stop-loss orders. Reuters
• Crypto (BTC/ETH): Treat BTC/ETH as volatility exposure and maintain small positions; avoid using leverage or perpetual bonds during the current "Extreme Fear + Liquidation Event" window. For high-risk assets such as HYPE and PreStocks, maintain only very small speculative positions and verify contracts and custody. CoinGecko
• Event-driven trading (CRCL/COIN/HOOD): Compliance/listing/regional expansion offer short-term opportunities, but long-term holdings require observation of profit realization and regulatory trajectory. CoinDesk +1
This warrants close monitoring (next week).
• Daily purchase volume, frequency, and counterparty response of the NY Fed RMP; Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Nvidia H200 export orders and regulatory responses; Reuters
• Crypto market leverage/liquidation data and exchange fund flows (determining the short-term direction of BTC/ETH); Financial Research Office
• Circle / Coinbase's compliance and commercialization progress in the Middle East and India (impacting USDC, trading volume, and revenue). CoinDesk +1
Overall summary (in one sentence)
Driven by the combined forces of the Fed's Short-Term Liquidity Management (RMP) and industry/geopolitical news (represented by NVDA H200) + crypto sentiment/liquidation, the market is primarily driven by events and liquidity redistribution in the short term. The strategy prioritizes risk control, phased position building, and adding to positions after news verification. High-beta/contract risk (PreStocks, HYPE) positions are limited to very small positions and require strict verification. Federal Reserve System +1
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Primary sources (excerpt): Investing / FRED (10Y/2Y/M2); Yahoo Finance / CBOE (VIX); CoinGecko (BTC/ETH/SOL historical prices); TradingEconomics (Gold); Reuters / TechCrunch (NVDA H200 report); CoinDesk (Circle ADGM); TechCrunch / Coindesk (Coinbase India); New York Fed / Fed Implementation Note (RMP). All data is based on publicly available market quotes and media reports from December 17th to December 18th, 2025. Federal Reserve System +8Investing.com +8FRED +8
#RMP#Fed#NVDA #BTC #Gold #VIX #DXY #Circle#Coinbase #PreStocks
