The recent international precious metals script is quite interesting.
Gold is 'lying flat and oscillating' near historical highs, in a posture of 'I've reached my peak, please do not disturb,' currently hanging at $4320/ounce, just a takeaway away from the record set in October. On Wednesday, it barely moved, rising by 0.8%, as if to say: 'I'm still alive, don't rush.'
On the other hand, platinum suddenly transformed into 'rage mode,' skyrocketing close to the $2000 mark, and although it later fell back, it is clearly signaling: 'Gold is old, it's my turn to take the stage!'
Market sentiment is actually very realistically divided:
On one side, geopolitical tensions (like the situation in a South American country escalating) push safe-haven funds into gold, while on the other side, everyone is staring wide-eyed like copper bells, fixated on U.S. inflation data, eager to pry out the specific date when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates from the numbers.
Gold now is like a 'patient with indecision' wanting to push for new highs, yet being held back by the expectation of 'high interest rates lasting longer'; wanting to drop, but the safe-haven sentiment supports the bottom. In this kind of market, my personal strategy is: do not chase after historical highs, but every sudden drop is an opportunity to test positions. The script for gold this year has been 'slow rise, rapid fall'; don’t be a hero at emotional peaks.
But what really caught my eye is platinum.
This brother has been like a 'supporting character in precious metals' for the past few years, but suddenly has a bigger role this year. The reason is not complicated: supply-demand story + positional advantage.
The long-term expectations for industrial demand (especially in the hydrogen energy sector) have been priced in early, and speculative funds suddenly find a 'bargain';
Gold prices are too high, and some funds are turning to platinum, seeking a rebound space;
After breaking through key technical positions, follow-up buying rushes in, amplifying volatility.
However, note that platinum's volatility is much fiercer than gold's; after a short-term spike, it is often accompanied by a rapid pullback. Do not rush in to chase after a surge the next morning; be careful not to become the 'mountain top tour guide.'
My view is very clear:
Gold is not the end point here, but it needs a decent pullback to rise healthily; the story of platinum has just begun, but it is more suitable for waiting to buy low rather than chasing highs.
The precious metals market has always been in a love affair with the Federal Reserve's expectations this year, breaking up and getting back together, with emotional fluctuations more dramatic than a soap opera. So reduce the frequency, increase patience, and wait for the market to give a comfortable position; it’s easier to make money than to operate every day.
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