Global Macroeconomic and Market Dynamics Overview
In November, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (Swift) reported that, in terms of payment amount, the renminbi remains the sixth most active currency globally, accounting for 2.94%.
In the United States, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November rose by 2.7% year-on-year, continuing to decline from 3% in September. The October data was absent due to the federal government's 'shutdown'; last week, initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 224,000, slightly below market expectations, while the previous week's continuing claims increased by 67,000 to 1,897,000, also below the expected 1,930,000. On the policy front, Trump indicated that the nominee for the next Federal Reserve chairman will be announced soon, and that nominee supports a 'substantial' rate cut; Federal Reserve official Goolsbee also signaled a more accommodative stance, stating that if the trend of inflation subsides clearly, rate cuts could be initiated.
The European market is showing a divergent trend, with the Bank of England lowering the benchmark interest rate for the fourth time this year by 25 basis points to 3.75%. However, there are doubts about the effect of rate cuts on boosting the economy—companies are hindered by high labor costs and uncertainties in foreign trade, leading to cautious investment attitudes, while residents are suppressing their willingness to consume due to high living costs. The European Central Bank, on the other hand, has chosen to maintain the status quo, keeping the three key rates stable while raising economic forecasts: driven by domestic demand, the Eurozone economy is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2025; inflation expectations are gradually declining, with projected inflation rates for 2025 to 2028 at 2.1%, 1.9%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, respectively. Additionally, a dispute has arisen within the EU regarding the disposal of frozen Russian assets, with German Chancellor Merz planning to respond to Belgium's request to use the frozen assets of the Russian central bank in Germany to support Ukraine. However, Belgian Prime Minister De Wever has clearly stated that the current EU guarantee scheme is 'still insufficient' and opposes his country taking on related risks and responsibilities alone.
The pace of monetary policy easing in emerging markets continues, with the Mexican central bank lowering the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7%, a new low in three and a half years, while not ruling out the possibility of further rate cuts. However, it emphasizes that it will prudently assess the impact of tax increases and tariff hikes in January next year on inflation, stating that their effects are 'temporary and not necessarily linear.' The Brazilian central bank has raised its economic growth forecast, increasing the expected growth rate for 2025 from 2.0% to 2.3%, and adjusting the 2026 growth forecast from 1.5% to 1.6%. South Korea, meanwhile, is focusing on long-term development, planning to incubate 10,000 startups in hard tech fields such as AI over the next five years to create a new engine for economic growth.
In the global capital markets, the three major U.S. stock indices closed higher collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising slightly by 0.14% to 47,951.85 points; the S&P 500 index increased by 0.79%, closing at 6,774.76 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index led the gains, rising by 1.38% to 23,006.36 points.
The commodity market is showing a mixed trend, with precious metals under pressure. COMEX gold futures fell by 0.23%, closing at $4,363.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures saw a larger decline of 2.17%, closing at $65.45 per ounce. The energy sector rose slightly, with NYMEX light crude oil futures for January 2026 rising by 0.38% to $56.15 per barrel; February London Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.23%, closing at $59.82 per barrel.
In the bond and foreign exchange markets, U.S. Treasury yields generally fell, with the 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury yields dropping by 2.08, 2.78, 3.84, 3.31, and 2.43 basis points, respectively, to 3.460%, 3.497%, 3.662%, 4.120%, and 4.802%. The U.S. dollar index rose slightly by 0.06%, closing at 98.425; non-U.S. currencies showed mixed results, with the euro falling to 1.1725 against the dollar, the pound rising slightly to 1.3386 against the dollar, and the dollar retreating against the yen, franc, Canadian dollar, and Swedish krona to varying degrees. $BTC #美国非农数据超预期
