12.19 UKOIL Intraday
OPEC+ announced the minutes of the December meeting, confirming a reduction of 3 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, with some member countries voluntarily cutting an additional 500,000 barrels per day, strengthening expectations of supply-side contraction; at the same time, the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory data showed that as of the week ending December 12, inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 1.5 million barrels, indicating signs of recovery on the demand side; under the resonance of multiple positive factors, the short-term bearish pressure on crude oil has eased, laying a solid foundation for bullish positioning on the technical side.
Entry point 59.4, which corresponds to the lower edge of the supply-demand balance area, and is also the resonance support level of the MA5 moving average and the upper edge of the previous consolidation platform. After the pullback to this range, Dian Wei formed a “bullish engulfing” candlestick to stabilize.
Add-on position 59.1, which corresponds to the MA10 moving average and the pullback verification area after the previous breakout; if the point briefly dips to this level, it represents an add-on opportunity characterized by “supply-demand support + healthy technical pullback,” allowing for an increase in low-cost positions.
Defense can be seen at 58.7, which is the lower edge of the support area corresponding to the decline in U.S. EIA inventories; if the point effectively breaks below this level, it means the dual logic of “OPEC+ production cuts support + geopolitical premium” has failed, and there is no obvious supply-demand support below, increasing the risk of trend reversal.
(Entry at 59.4, add at 59.1, add at 58.7, target 60.6-61.1)
Personal opinion, not an investment suggestion
