Bitcoin recently dipped below the $85,000 level, but it seemed that whales were buying back in. However, on-chain data shows that the reality is different from what it appears.
Although the price hovers above critical support, the main activity is not new money entering, but rather restructuring within portfolios.
Bitcoin holders are not overly bullish
The increase in wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC initially suggested whale accumulation. However, a senior researcher at Glassnode stated: The reason for this increase is due to the movement and restructuring of wallets, and there is no new buying wave. They emphasized that these moves did not bring additional demand to the Bitcoin market.
Wallet transfers mean that large investors are dividing or consolidating their assets among different addresses. This is usually preferred for custody, internal risk management, or accounting needs. The true owner does not change. Finally, Coinbase transferred approximately 640,000 BTC internally, and this behavior had stood out in the relevant wallet data.
Due to these types of transfers not bringing new capital into the market, their effect on the price is zero. However, this transaction can misleadingly raise accumulation indicators, leading to false bullish signals.
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Macro indicators show that caution is needed. The MVRV Long/Short Difference data indicates that profits are currently concentrated among short-term holders rather than long-term Bitcoin owners. This imbalance poses a downside risk because short-term traders typically change positions quickly during price fluctuations.
If the short-term investor has cash in hand, the selling pressure can increase in an uncertain environment. These types of traders usually pocket their profits at the first signs of weakness in the market. In such a scenario, as upward pressure on the price decreases, price stagnation (consolidation) can persist at certain levels.
Bitcoin is hovering around the $87,108 level at the time of writing and is managing to hold above the $86,361 support. While this area offers stability in the short term, the recovery is still hanging by a thread. BTC must permanently break upper resistances to signal a new upward trend.
Short-term investors continue to threaten the possibility of an upward movement. If profit-taking accelerates, Bitcoin could get stuck in a sideways motion below $88,210. A breakdown of this structure could pull the price back to $84,698, which was tested in the recent volatile movements.
For a stronger recovery, Bitcoin must clearly break the $88,210 level. A move towards $90,401 could boost momentum upward. Of course, for this to happen, new investor demand must come in, meaning buyers who see opportunities in prices need to re-emerge.
