Last night I was staring at the screen and almost sprayed my coffee out; this world is getting more and more surreal. On one side, a certain big figure publicly declares, 'Inflation? It doesn't exist.', while on the other side, the Bank of Japan quietly pulls out the 'interest rate hike' key that hasn't been used much in thirty years. Nowadays, macro narratives can reverse more dramatically than Hollywood scripts, and sensitive crypto players may have already caught a whiff of a familiar, money-scented wind.
Don't rush into 'FOMO', let's sort this out:
1. When the 'theory of vanishing inflation' meets the Federal Reserve's personnel reshuffle
"There is almost no inflation" is something that would probably be laughed at if said by an ordinary person. But if it comes from someone who can influence policy direction, it’s like striking a match in a dry forest. It directly undermines the market's belief in 'persistent inflation', and more importantly, it quietly slipped the script of 'faster and more aggressive interest rate cuts' into Wall Street's drawer.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve's high-level 'personnel shuffle' game is intensifying. Imagine a scenario where a captain inclined to 'open the floodgates' is about to take the helm, combined with the official narrative that 'inflation is under control'. Liquidity, the eternal 'magician' of capital markets, may conjure more rabbits out of the hat. History continuously tells us that when cheap money begins to flood, it always flows to the places that can breed imagination the most—like the crypto market.
2. Japan's 'turning point': a party that is thirty years overdue, but the ending music may be deafening.
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates, ending the negative interest rate era. This is no small matter; it is the first reminder bell ringing after a more than ten-year, trillion-yen 'yen arbitrage trading' feast.
In simple terms, in the past, a lot of hot money globally was borrowed cheaply in yen to invest in high-yield assets around the world. Now, Japan's 'funding faucet' is starting to tighten, costs are rising, and this vast amount of capital must consider: is it going home, or switching to a new venue? The reallocation of trillions of dollars is like a giant whale turning over, which will inevitably create a tsunami in the global market. So, will crypto assets, known for their high volatility and potential high returns, become the new adventure playground for this 'roaming hot money'?
My personal view: In the eye of the storm, Bitcoin's 'split personality disorder'.
Now, we stand at an interesting crossroads: on one side, the West may restart easing expectations, and on the other, the East is taking concrete tightening actions. The collision of these two forces will generate intense capital flows.
So, in this narrative, will Bitcoin be 'digital gold' or a 'risk amplifier'? I believe that in the short term, it may exhibit a repeated 'split personality'.
In times of market panic and turmoil in traditional assets, its 'non-sovereign' and 'scarcity' safe-haven attributes will be mentioned, emerging as an independent market.
When global risk appetite rebounds and hot money seeks high beta (high volatility and high return) assets, it will become the most eye-catching 'charging bull'.
This is not a single-choice question, but a dynamic question that changes answers based on market sentiment. The key moving forward is to observe which of the two macro currents ultimately dominates.
Key moment: How can ordinary players avoid being 'blown away'?
Don't bet on direction; respect volatility. Such a level of macro game is not something we small investors can predict accurately. Abandon the thought of 'going all in' on guessing rises and falls; volatility may dramatically increase, so ensure your position won't get wiped out in the first violent shakeup.
Focus on the flow of 'water'. What really needs to be monitored are the actual interest rate trends of the dollar and the changes in the balance sheets of major global economic central banks. These are fundamental to determining the 'water volume'.
Keep your ammunition, stay agile. Prior to a clear trend, maintain sufficient cash (or stablecoin) positions. This is not bearish; it's to ensure that when the market provides a clear answer, you can act rather than be stuck in the mud.
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