Inflation data from the US turned out to be much better than expected — it was the strongest 'drop below forecast' in recent months. But instead of sustainable growth, the market unexpectedly went down: both Bitcoin and American stocks sharply fell during trading in the US.
Many traders were surprised by this, but there is a logical explanation for such asset behavior. It's not about macroeconomics, but about market structure, positioning, and liquidity.
What happened after the CPI publication
Year-on-year inflation in November slowed to 2.7% with an expectation of 3.1%. Core CPI was also below the forecast at 2.6%.
On paper, this is one of the most 'bullish' inflation reports of 2025. Initially, the market reacted logically: Bitcoin surged to $89,000, and the S&P 500 also sharply rose immediately after the data was released.
But the rise ended quickly.
About half an hour after the CPI was published, Bitcoin reversed. After a local maximum of around $89,200, the price sharply dropped to around $85,000.
The S&P 500 followed a similar scenario: sharp intraday movements almost completely 'erased' the initial growth. Only then did the market stabilize.
Such synchronous dynamics between the crypto market and the stock market are important. This is a sign that the movement was not a feature of a specific asset and was not solely related to sentiment. It had a structural character.
The volume of aggressive selling explains a lot
The main clue is the data on taker sell volume for Bitcoin.
On intraday charts, large spikes of selling through market orders can be seen precisely at the moments when the price broke support. Such trades mean not calm profit-taking, but aggressive selling 'at market'.
Most of these spikes occurred during US trading hours and coincided with the fastest phase of the decline.
If we look more broadly, the picture is repeating on the weekly chart. Similar series of sales occurred several times in recent days during periods of increased liquidity. This resembles systemic or forced selling rather than retail exits.
Such behavior is characteristic of liquidations of leveraged positions, strategies tied to volatility, and algorithms that automatically reduce risk. When the price goes against the leverage pressure, the process accelerates.
It's not that the report turned out to be bad. On the contrary, it was too good.
Softer inflation temporarily improved market conditions: liquidity increased, spreads narrowed. In such an environment, it is easier for large players to execute large trades.
Initially, Bitcoin surged upward. But apparently, it faced a dense area of pending orders, stops, and short positions with leverage. The rise stalled, the price reversed, and this triggered the liquidation of long positions.
When the liquidations occurred, forced market selling only intensified the decline. Therefore, the drop was sharp rather than smooth.
The S&P 500 showed a similar 'volatility'. Such movements when important macro data is released are often associated with dealer hedging, the influence of options, and the real-time restructuring of systematic strategies.
Are there signs of manipulation?
Charts do not prove direct manipulation. However, they show behavior that often resembles 'stop hunting' and liquidity squeezing:
quick movements to obvious levels
reversals immediately after liquidity improvement
sharp spikes of aggressive selling during breakouts
clear connection to US trading hours
This is typically how markets behave with a high level of leverage. Most often, it is not individual people behind this, but large funds, market makers, and players who adhere to systematic strategies. They operate simultaneously in futures, options, and spot markets. Their task is execution and risk management, not playing with crowd sentiments.
In the crypto market, where leverage is still high and liquidity quickly 'drowns' outside of key trading hours, such movements look particularly sharp.
What does all this mean?
The current decline does not negate the CPI signal. Inflation has indeed decreased, and in the long run, this is a supportive factor for risk assets. Right now, the market has rather experienced a short-term 'position reset' rather than a reversal of the global trend.
In the near future, traders will watch whether Bitcoin holds above key support levels and whether selling pressure weakens as the market 'digests' the liquidations.
If the volume of aggressive selling starts to decrease and the price stabilizes, the effect of positive inflation data may still manifest in the upcoming sessions.
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