First, let me break down the three core signals for everyone, all of which are key points I extracted sentence by sentence. Understanding them can save you half a year's detours:
First, "interest rate hikes ≠ turning point"—this is the most crucial sentence from the governor's speech! I listened to it three times, and what he meant was practically saying, "Don't overinterpret"—this round of interest rate hikes in Japan is just a slight shift from 'passive easing' to 'normalcy'; it’s completely different from the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening. In simple terms, the foundation of long-term easing is still there; it’s just that they are temporarily not flooding the market with liquidity. This means there’s one less major black swan trigger for our crypto market.
Second, the subsequent interest rate hikes 'have no script', all depend on the data's complexion. I must give the governor a 'real' thumbs up for this! He directly stated that he would not follow the Federal Reserve's 'predetermined interest rate rhythm', and everything depends on the complexion of these three indicators: inflation, wages, and the economy. In my view, this is a typical 'wait and see' approach; after all, the Japanese economy has just shown some signs of warming up, and I really dare not mess around. For the crypto market, this means there will be no sustained liquidity contraction pressure in the short term, so there is no need to fear a large-scale withdrawal of funds.
Third, the 'wage-inflation positive cycle' is the ultimate observation post! This is the point I am most concerned about and is key to judging the future direction of the market. The governor repeatedly emphasizes that he is not concerned about the short-term price spikes but whether companies can continue to raise wages and keep inflation stable around the target. In other words, if wages do not keep up with inflation, the public has no money to spend, and the economy is still futile; the central bank absolutely dares not raise interest rates again. As for crypto, as long as there is no 'economic recession + continued interest rate hikes' combo, the market will have enough breathing space.
There's another interesting detail: the governor repeatedly emphasized 'monitoring financial market fluctuations', fearing that one wrong word could trigger a collapse in Japanese bonds or exchange rates. This is enough to show how 'timid' the Bank of Japan is now - wanting to save face (by making some interest rate hikes) while also wanting stability (fearing market turmoil). This 'extremely cautious' attitude has instead reassured the market: future operations will only be slow, soft, and steady, without any sudden attacks.
Speaking of this, some brothers must be wondering: what impact do these mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum have? My personal view is very clear: in the short term, it’s just a small fluctuation in sentiment, and the long-term impact is limited. After all, the current core driving forces of the crypto market are still the Federal Reserve's policies, industry regulations, and institutional capital movements. Japan's recent 'trial interest rate hike' can at most be considered a 'marginal variable'. Those who want to take advantage of this news to buy the dip or escape the peak are likely to be 'killed back' by the market - remember, the market always punishes those who 'overinterpret news'.
Finally, let me say something from the heart: the current crypto market is not about who reacts quickly, but who can remain calm. The excitement of Japan's interest rate hike will end after watching; don't let emotions take you away. I will continue to track global central bank policy trends and changes in the capital flows of mainstream coins, and I will synchronize with everyone at the first sign of any wind or grass movement.
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