Recently, the A-share market has shown many positive signals regarding liquidity, with main funds, northbound funds, and various financing sources all surging in a hidden manner, collectively entering a bottom-fishing mode. Combining market sentiment and the policy environment, the core conclusion is clear: next Monday, the A-share market will usher in a significant surge, with funds collectively propelling the index to surpass 3900 points.
The precise bottom-fishing by main funds has injected a strong boost into the market. On December 19, the A-share market staged a stunning turnaround near a key support level, with the index soaring by 1.5% in a straight line, as the four major weighted sectors of insurance, securities, banking, and semiconductors collectively exerted force. Behind this is the active entry of main funds. From the post-market data, the net inflow of main funds exceeded 20 billion yuan that day, setting a new high for single-day net inflow in recent times, with the financial sector accounting for over 40% of the net inflow, and the semiconductor sector's net inflow also exceeding 5 billion yuan. The concentrated entry of main funds not only reflects the market's recognition of the current valuation but also indicates that the short-term market has entered an upward channel.
The continued accumulation of northbound funds has further strengthened market confidence. As the 'smart money' in the market, northbound funds have shown a trend of sustained net inflow recently, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 30 billion yuan since December. In terms of allocation direction, northbound funds have focused on increasing positions in core sectors such as consumption, technology, and finance, with the largest increase in the consumption sector and a noticeable acceleration in the pace of accumulation in the technology sector. The continuous inflow of northbound funds not only brings incremental funds to the market but also conveys recognition of the recovery of the Chinese economy and the long-term value of the A-share market.
The active layout of margin financing and securities lending funds also reflects the warming of market sentiment. Recently, the balance of margin financing has remained at historical highs, with financing funds showing a trend of sustained net inflow, and the cumulative increase in financing balance exceeding 15 billion yuan since December. The direction of financing funds mainly concentrates on the consumption and technology sectors supported by policies, as well as the financial sector with valuation advantages, which is highly consistent with the allocation direction of major funds and northbound funds. The coordinated layout of multiple funds has formed a combined force of funds, providing sufficient momentum for the market's rise.
From the perspective of the supporting logic of the funds, the current inflow of funds into the market is not coincidental, but rather the result of the combined effects of policy dividends, valuation advantages, and industrial trends. On the policy front, consumption stimulus policies and expectations of monetary policy easing continue to be released, providing a good policy environment for the market; in terms of valuation, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the A-share market is below the historical median, providing high investment value; on the industrial level, the trends of consumption upgrade and technological innovation are clear, providing a clear allocation direction for funds. The combination of multiple factors makes the A-share market a safe haven for funds, attracting sustained inflows from various types of funds.
In terms of market sentiment, the recent panic in the market has been fully released, and the market sentiment indicator has returned from the oversold range to the neutral range. The stunning reversal on December 19 further boosted market confidence, and investors' risk appetite has significantly increased. From the perspective of the market's profit-making effect, the number of stocks with price limits has continued to rise recently, and the profit-making effect is spreading, which will further attract new funds into the market, forming a virtuous cycle of 'fund inflow - profit-making effect enhancement - new funds entering'.
In terms of operational suggestions, next Monday, key attention can be given to the three major sectors with concentrated fund inflows: first, the financial sector, which is the core force in the index's assault, has seen obvious fund inflows recently and meets the conditions for a start; second, the consumption sector, which benefits from policy stimulus and northbound fund accumulation, is expected to continue rising; third, the technology sector, where the pace of fund entry is accelerating, the industry trend is clear, and the upward space is vast. Investors can choose high-quality targets with strong performance certainty and high fund attention for layout, while also needing to pay attention to controlling positions, avoiding chasing highs, and seizing the opportunity to buy on dips.@币圈罗盘 #加密市场观察 $BTC
