In the crypto community, there's an old saying: 'Divergence between volume and price is not bullish, caution is needed when the price rises on decreasing volume'— this statement fits perfectly on ZEC's 4-hour chart today.
While staring at the market early in the morning, I pondered: after bottoming out from the 'golden pit' at 371 on the 18th, ZEC's rebound has been impressive, reaching the previous high of 457. However, this bullish candlestick this morning changes the vibe— the price is still inching up, but the trading volume is dropping like a deflated ball, a typical 'divergence between volume and price'. Looking at the order book on the right, the sell ratio is -0.07%, and sell orders are densely piled above 450. This is hardly a setup for a new high; it's clear that 'the bulls have run out of bullets.'
Just this morning I came across a piece of news that further solidified my judgment: that guy from Arkham is stirring things up again, claiming to have 'de-anonymized' over half of ZEC's transactions, with a holding of 2.5 billion tagged for tracking. Think about it, what is ZEC's lifeline? It's the 'privacy coin' card! Back in the day, it gained fame with zero-knowledge proofs, and now they’ve stripped you bare; it’s like you bought an 'invisible sports car' and the manufacturer tells you 'sorry, we installed a tracker'—can the market not panic? Although Grayscale just submitted an application for a ZEC spot ETF a couple of days ago, regulatory matters are still pending, and the SEC's 'privacy coin roundtable' hasn’t convened yet; it’s too early to talk about good news, while bad news has already hit hard.
Looking at the technical side, the three lines of KDJ are almost sticking together like a rope; this is called 'neutral stagnation'. Experienced players know that this state either leads to a sideways grind or a direct plunge. The MACD seems to be about to golden cross, but those few red bars are like mosquito legs; compared to the volume from a few days ago, this is clearly 'the end of a strong bow'. Let me give you an example: last month, SOL also had this situation, rebounding from a low to a previous high, with volume halved, and then it directly plummeted by 12 points that afternoon—history doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme.
So today my view is very clear: don’t chase highs. If you have holdings, you can reduce your position in batches above 450. If you really want to enter, you must wait for a pullback to the support level of 440, and the stop-loss must be set below 435. This is not bearish on ZEC; it's just that the current environment has 'uncertainty more appealing than profit'—you might think it’s a 'last-minute shot', but it could be the main force throwing you a 'smoke bomb'.
To speak from the heart, I've been watching ZEC for three years, and every rebound feels like a 'stubborn child', but this time is different; external bearish news collides with peak speed, we have to be steady. By the way, tomorrow morning at the SEC meeting, Zooko will speak; what do you think he will say? Will he seek a 'lifeline' for privacy coins or will he directly admit defeat? I'll put it this way: tomorrow's news could directly determine whether ZEC 'soars' or 'lies flat' this week.
Twelve years in finance, the exclusive secret of pioneers in the crypto world: insight into the market, steady progress. Pay attention to the Heavenly Master’s teachings on how to steadily increase value; risks and opportunities coexist in investment; blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto world!
