Let's talk about the bear market structure and the bear market bottom

The bear market is long and brutal, with previous rounds of bear markets having a downward trend that lasted for a year or more. It has only been a little over two months since the current decline, and there is still a long way to go before reaching the bear market bottom.

From the perspective of wave theory, the bear market downward trend is typically an A-B-C three-wave structure. Currently, the A wave may not have completed yet, and it is highly likely that the A wave will not break the mid-term support level of 74,500;

After the completion of the A wave, there will be a B wave rebound, with the target for the B wave rebound near the annual line;

After the completion of the B wave rebound, the C wave downward will continue. The C wave is likely to break the mid-term support level and test the support level of the fourth large wave bottom of the bull market.

Therefore, the bear market bottom for Bitcoin may be around 55,000, or even lower.

In the future, I will use my own proposed second-order rate of change model to calculate a more accurate bear market bottom.

Last July, I predicted the top of this round of Bitcoin bull market based on the second-order rate of change model, with only a 1% error (predicted value 124944±3000, actual value 126200). #比特币流动性