不烦财经

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The liquidity of the Christmas market has flowed into gold and the US stock market

There is a brief lack of fresh blood in the cryptocurrency circle, all are mutual cuts

The four-year cycle has been broken

From a few thousand altcoins before, now there are tens of millions of altcoins

If there is a market, money will only flow into Bitcoin and the top 10-20 cryptocurrencies #比特币流动性

This week can be considered a macro vacuum period, and facing the lack of a dominant macro narrative has made me somewhat confused.

Combined with last week's macro events, the current assessment of the global financial market's performance is to judge what the market is trading!
#比特币流动性

How many brothers are like this? Eating takeout worth two u, wearing a coat worth ten u, opening a position worth 1000 u #加密市场观察

Let's talk about the bear market structure and the bear market bottom

The bear market is long and brutal, with previous rounds of bear markets having a downward trend that lasted for a year or more. It has only been a little over two months since the current decline, and there is still a long way to go before reaching the bear market bottom.

From the perspective of wave theory, the bear market downward trend is typically an A-B-C three-wave structure. Currently, the A wave may not have completed yet, and it is highly likely that the A wave will not break the mid-term support level of 74,500;
After the completion of the A wave, there will be a B wave rebound, with the target for the B wave rebound near the annual line;
After the completion of the B wave rebound, the C wave downward will continue. The C wave is likely to break the mid-term support level and test the support level of the fourth large wave bottom of the bull market.

Therefore, the bear market bottom for Bitcoin may be around 55,000, or even lower.

In the future, I will use my own proposed second-order rate of change model to calculate a more accurate bear market bottom.

Last July, I predicted the top of this round of Bitcoin bull market based on the second-order rate of change model, with only a 1% error (predicted value 124944±3000, actual value 126200). #比特币流动性

You might be even more awesome than Buffett was at your age! #巨鲸动向

If you had spent $10,000 on ETH in 2015 and held it until now, it would have grown to $200 million.

It sounds easy: just hold on, right?

But when you pull out the profit curve, you'll find that the emotional journey is something that no one can endure:

10,000→1,000,000→14,000,000→390,000→30,000,000→1,200,000→93,000,000→5,300,000→323,000,000→54,000,000→200,000,000

Now ask yourself one question:
Can you really hold on? #巨鲸动向

It seems that the general has earned 50 million US dollars in foreign exchange again, hahaha. #加密市场观察

The inflow of funds into gold ETFs has been surpassed by Bitcoin ETFs, while the market cap of Bitcoin is much lower than that of gold. However, this year the increase in gold has far outpaced BTC.

The core reason should be that there are too many profit-taking players in Bitcoin, and most of the old crypto OGs believe in the four-year cycle theory, so they tend to sell when the time is right. #比特币流动性

Did not continue painting the door smashing plate last night, so I opened more positions again, still with light positions and low multiples, currently just a rebound after a four-hour period of decline, preparing to take a short long position. #比特币流动性

If Bitcoin reaches $93,000, more than $4 billion in leveraged short positions will be liquidated.#加密市场观察

Many people are saying that today Japan's interest rate hike has landed, and they are waiting for a sharp drop to buy the dip. According to the characteristics of past interest rate hikes in Japan, there generally won't be a big spike or super drop on the same day; instead, it will happen slowly over several days because Japan's peak is lagged. Next week is the key. If you are thinking about buying the dip today, you might fall into a deep pit, and this market situation is not something that can be resolved in one go. It doesn't mean that after a big spike, it will just keep rebounding for several weeks; it might be a quick spike on the same day, a quick close, and then slowly drop to the lowest point of the spike, and then slowly rebound again, running for about three to four weeks.

As for today, the short-term rhythm is the same as yesterday's, rebound during the day to short at high points, wait for a drop at night to take profit. Short positions with cost advantages can take profit in parts each time, and add positions when it rebounds…#加密市场观察

$SOL
Level 120 will be very important
Weekly breakdown = The view of a rebound is falsified, and it will continue to drop to around 80
Support = There is still a possibility of a rebound to 150 #sol

The Bank of Japan confirmed a 25 basis point interest rate hike, but the implications of the yen's interest rate increase have not fully settled yet. The focus will be on the speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kishida Fumio at 14:30 later.

In this speech, the market will be paying attention to how much room there is for future yen interest rate hikes and what the pace of these hikes will be. Additionally, in conjunction with the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts, this will gradually bring marginal effects on market liquidity and market exits.

Currently, in the financial markets, risk markets are not very volatile because the interest rate hike has been anticipated in advance. The main impact at present is on the money market and bond market, while the upcoming speech is expected to have a significant impact on the risk markets.

As a reminder, today features both the yen interest rate hike and the four witches day for U.S. stocks, so extra caution is needed. There are not many effective trading days next week, and it is uncertain whether the weakening trading sentiment brought by Christmas will affect this week in advance! #比特币流动性

Yili Hua's call!

Ban Mu Xia is bullish!
#ETH走势分析