The last days of 2024 are passing in a rare tranquil atmosphere of the cryptocurrency market. After a period of strong volatility earlier in the year, December is closing with a sense of boredom, weakened liquidity, and a defensive mentality prevailing among most investors. However, behind that calmness are noteworthy technical signals and cycles, particularly surrounding Bitcoin – the asset that is still playing a pivotal role in the entire market.

Bitcoin holds the support zone, despite macro pressure

According to observations throughout December, Bitcoin continues to show significant resilience around the $85,000 price range. Although the market faces a series of adverse information, from the hawkish tone of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during the FOMC meeting to the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) rate hike tightening global liquidity, BTC has not lost its important support structure.

During strong correction periods, Bitcoin's price has repeatedly been pushed down to the $78,000–$80,000 range but quickly bounced back. This indicates that defensive buying power still exists, particularly from long-term funds, in the context of short-term investors becoming increasingly cautious.

The technical model opens up short-term rebound waves

On a larger timeframe, Bitcoin's candle structure is gradually forming a higher high pattern, with next month's candle wicks higher than the previous month. This is a technical signal that has appeared in transition phases of previous cycles, notably in Q1/2022.

According to the scenario monitored by many traders, this model could lay the groundwork for a market rebound in the early months of the year. Liquidity is likely to improve from January to March, before the market faces deeper correction risks as it enters the second quarter.

Altcoin enters the 'reset' phase of valuation

If Bitcoin maintains a relatively stable structure, the picture on the altcoin side is completely opposite. Many projects that once raised hundreds of millions of USD are struggling to find liquidity exits. Numerous tokens are continuously declining, despite being backed by large funds or heavily promoted in previous periods.

Confidence in altcoins is being severely eroded. Narratives that once led the market, such as memecoins or AI tokens, are also weakening. Layer-1 projects that were valued in the billions of USD in 2023, or new ecosystems that were hyped at launch, are all facing the same scenario: selling pressure from development teams and token unlocks from investment funds.

Trading timing and defensive strategy

In this context, January and February are seen as suitable periods to take advantage of technical rebounds. Short-term traders may rely on Bitcoin's higher high candle structure to seek trading opportunities in the recovery trend, rather than making long-term bets on altcoins.

Conversely, from April to May, when the 'sell in May' effect returns, the market may enter a stronger correction phase. Projects with overly high valuations or associated with legal risk factors and token unlocks are likely to become the focus of short-selling strategies.

Cycle lesson: Bitcoin remains the backbone of the portfolio

One of the biggest lessons of this cycle is the irreplaceable role of Bitcoin in the investment portfolio. Maintaining over 50% Bitcoin allocation helps investors maintain relative stability, even when the altcoin market experiences severe corrections.

Although the profit levels may not be too explosive in the short term, the strategy prioritizing Bitcoin still provides the ability to preserve capital and maintain profits throughout the cycle – something that many pure altcoin investors have been unable to do this season.

The market has not ended, but expectations have changed

The current cycle may not have officially closed yet, but it is clear that the crypto market is entering a phase of strong cleansing. This is the time to adjust expectations, reassess valuations, and return to core assets. In this context, patience and discipline in risk management may be more important than any 'next season' narrative drawn too early.