$ASR
The fantasy of rate cuts has shattered! The probability of the Federal Reserve remaining "steady" in January is 79%, is the cryptocurrency market going to experience turbulence again?
The latest CME data is explosive! The "Federal Reserve Watch" on December 22 shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in January has surged to 79%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 21%, and expectations for easing have cooled directly. More critically, the competition in March has intensified, with the probabilities of a 25 basis point cut and maintaining rates almost equal (46.9% vs 43.6%), while the probability of a 50 basis point significant rate cut is less than 10%.
Behind this is the Federal Reserve's cautious calculation—inflation is still above the 2% target, the job market is stable, and coupled with the uncertainty of Trump's policies, Powell's team has chosen to "stay still and control movement." For the cryptocurrency market, this is no small matter! Last month, after the Federal Reserve cut rates, Bitcoin surged and then fell by $2,500, with over $300 million liquidated in 24 hours. Now that the expectations for pausing rate cuts are rising, funds are going to realign again.
Can mainstream coins hold key support? Will small-cap coins become a major area for selling again? Do you think the Federal Reserve will cut rates as scheduled in March?
