Let's start with a heart-wrenching question: Did you make a profit or a loss in the crypto space this year? Don't be shy to say, even those hedge funds with billions of dollars, claiming to 'never miss out,' have stumbled! The latest data shows that 2025 has become the worst year for these institutions since the crash in 2022, with directional strategies losing 2.5%, and altcoin strategies plummeting by 23%. Only the market-neutral strategies barely made a profit of 14.4%. As soon as this news broke, the community was filled with wailing about 'Will the bull market come back?' Today, I'm going to reveal my heartfelt thoughts: This isn't a case of the bull market being absent; it's that the traps have increased! If you don't understand these 3 pitfalls, next year could be even worse!
First, let me break down the core reason behind this wave of institutional failures. It's not that they are unprofessional; the market has changed to a 'devil mode'. The biggest feature of this year's market is the 'Trump volatility'. It's not that a certain person is so powerful, but that as soon as unexpected political remarks or regulatory news come out, the market behaves like a roller coaster. One second it's rising, the next second it directly crashes by 40%. The quantitative models that those institutions rely on are all based on historical data predictions. When encountering such sudden fluctuations, they collapse like a computer losing its internet connection; it's a miracle if they don't get liquidated! What's worse is that liquidity has also dried up. Now, the trading volume within a 1% fluctuation range of Bitcoin has plummeted, while volatility has soared. Simply put, 'If you want to buy, you can't find it; if you want to sell, you can't get out.' The support level you think exists can actually break with just a poke.
Here comes the key point: how should ordinary people avoid pitfalls? The first pitfall is not to blindly trust 'institutional entry = safety'. Many people see Wall Street giants entering the market and ETF approvals, thinking they can bet confidently, which is a big mistake! The entry of institutional funds does not solidify liquidity but rather makes risks more concealed. I have reminded everyone before that the crash on October 10 last year was a watershed moment, after which the market entered a 'low liquidity + high volatility' death spiral, and we have yet to escape this vicious cycle. The second pitfall is to stay away from small-cap altcoin gambling. Currently, the order book depth for altcoins is thinner than paper, and any slight disturbance can lead to a crash. Institutions have directly cleared out this type of strategy; if you still hold onto the fantasy of 'betting on a hundredfold coin', isn't that just giving away money? The third pitfall is not to rely on a single strategy. This year, only market-neutral strategies are making money. What does this indicate? When the market is unclear, diversifying risk is a thousand times more important than chasing highs; don't put all your eggs in one basket.
Now let's talk about future trends. My view is very clear: short-term fluctuations seeking a bottom, long-term structural opportunities. The first half of next year is definitely not the time to blindly bottom fish. From the data, Bitcoin is currently struggling around 85000 USD. If this support level breaks, it is highly likely to test the 80000 USD mark; Ethereum is in a more dangerous situation, forming a head pattern. If it cannot hold the 3000 USD neckline, it may fall below 2500 USD. Some people say, 'Will Bhutan's use of 10,000 BTC for construction drive the price up?' Don't be naive, 10,000 BTC won't create big waves in the current market size; instead, it may become short-term selling pressure.
My old friends who know me are aware that I warned about the 'liquidity exhaustion risk' last October, advising everyone to reduce their holdings in altcoins and allocate to market-neutral strategy-related products. Fans who followed this advice avoided at least a 30% drop. Now I give everyone a clear signal: if Bitcoin cannot stabilize above 90000 USD, do not increase your positions; if it breaks below 85000, reduce your holdings to below 30%. Remember, surviving in the crypto space is more important than making quick money; it's not about who is bolder, but who is more cautious.
Finally, I want to say to everyone, the more chaotic the market, the more we need to stay clear-headed. I will continue to track on-chain data and institutional trends, and I will also share the insights on 'how to identify high-quality market-neutral strategy products' next. If you find this content useful, be sure to like and follow; otherwise, when the market suddenly changes next time, you might not be able to find me! If you have any questions, leave a message in the comments, and I will reply one by one.
Follow me@币圈罗盘 next time I will take you to break down the underlying logic of contract strategies, helping you avoid detours and earn real money!#比特币流动性 $BTC $ETH
