Everyone who knows me understands that my interpretation of the news has always been to "discard the false and retain the true." Last year, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates multiple times, and many analysts said, "The crypto market is going to crash." However, by analyzing the pace of rate hikes and market expectations, I concluded that "all bad news has been priced in, which is good news," encouraging everyone to hold onto Ethereum. As expected, a rebound followed; before the Fusaka upgrade on December 3rd this year, I interpreted the core value of the upgrade in advance, telling everyone, "Don’t be frightened by short-term fluctuations; in the long run, the upgrade is beneficial," and my followers successfully avoided the turbulent washout before the upgrade.
First, let me summarize the recent key messages: First, the Federal Reserve officials have stated a 'moderate interest rate cut', breaking the market's fantasy of significant easing, leading to a setback in risk asset sentiment and a drop in Ethereum prices; second, rumors of a hawkish turn from the Bank of Japan have suppressed liquidity expectations, exerting certain pressure on the crypto market; third, the European Central Bank has released easing signals, providing some support to the market; fourth, after the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade, Layer-2 data capacity has increased eightfold, transaction fees have decreased, and the ecosystem continues to optimize.
Here comes the first pitfall: Don't just look at a single message; you need to make a comprehensive judgment. Many people saw the Federal Reserve's 'moderate interest rate cut' news and immediately cut their positions, ignoring the European Central Bank's easing signals and the beneficial upgrades for Ethereum itself, resulting in selling at the lowest point. I'm telling you, analyzing news should be like 'a puzzle', integrating all relevant messages to determine the overall market trend, as a single piece of news can often be misleading.
The second pitfall: Distinguish between 'short-term news' and 'long-term news'. The Federal Reserve's statements and Bank of Japan rumors belong to short-term news and will only affect the market's short-term trend; while Ethereum's technological upgrades and ecological development are long-term news, which are the core factors determining Ethereum's long-term value. Many people treat short-term news as the basis for judging long-term trends, resulting in incorrect actions. For example, this time the Federal Reserve's 'moderate interest rate cut' statement will only lead to short-term fluctuations and will not change the long-term bullish trend of Ethereum.
The third pitfall: Don't easily believe in 'news interpretations'; analyze it yourself. Many so-called 'analysts' now just follow the trend to interpret news, or even deliberately misinterpret news to 'cut leeks'. I suggest everyone develop the habit of analyzing news yourself; for example, when you see the Federal Reserve's statements, you should understand the current economic data and employment market situation to judge the Federal Reserve's policy intentions, rather than directly believing others' interpretations.
Now let's talk about the subsequent trends; my personal view is that in the short term, influenced by macro news, Ethereum will maintain a volatile pattern, with the $3000 level being a key resistance point and $2800 being a key support level. In the long term, Ethereum's technological upgrades and ecological development are core positives, and as Layer-2 applications continue to roll out, Ethereum's value will gradually increase. I expect that Ethereum may break through the $5000 mark in the first half of next year.
Here are my operational suggestions: In the short term, watch more and act less, control your positions well, and don't be swayed by short-term news; in the long term, you can accumulate positions on dips, choosing quality Ethereum ecosystem projects, and not just fixating on the mainnet coins. Additionally, pay close attention to the Federal Reserve's policy guidance around January 21, as this could become an important turning point for market trends.
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