Brothers! The fear and greed index has dropped to 25! What does this number mean? It means that most people in the market are panic selling, and emotions have fallen to a freezing point! At this moment, the backend exploded; half of the people asked, 'Can we buy the dip now?' and the other half asked, 'Is it going to crash?' In today's article, I will use the simplest language, combined with 4 core signals, to help you judge whether Ethereum is an opportunity or a trap right now, and I'll teach you how to avoid pitfalls in extreme emotions. After reading, you will definitely have a sudden realization!
First, let's validate my strength. Last year, when the extreme fear index dropped to 20, I wrote an article stating, 'The emotional freezing point is a great entry opportunity.' Subsequently, Ethereum rose from $2000 to $2800, and many who followed my advice made a profit; in March of this year, when the extreme greed index rose to 85, I reminded everyone to 'take the profit and avoid the pullback.' After that, Ethereum indeed dropped by more than 500 points. This demonstrates the power of combining emotional indices with technical analysis. It's not just talk; I never rely on guesses for market predictions, only on data.
First, let's look at the current market situation: Ethereum's current price is $3024.51, and in the past 30 days, there have been 17 days of price increases, with a probability of increase at 57% and volatility at 4.43%, which is at a medium level. Many people see extreme fear and want to buy the dip, thinking 'when others are fearful, I should be greedy,' but I want to tell you that this statement is true, but the premise is to combine it with other signals; otherwise, you may end up buying the dip at the 'halfway up the mountain.'
The first core signal: macro policy trends. Currently, global central bank policies are diverging. The Federal Reserve previously stated a 'moderate rate cut,' breaking the market's illusion of significant easing, which is one of the core reasons for the recent cryptocurrency market correction. Moving forward, focus on U.S. CPI data and the Federal Reserve's policy guidance. If CPI data falls, and rate cut expectations rise, it will support Ethereum; if CPI data exceeds expectations, it may trigger a new round of correction. My personal judgment is that the Federal Reserve will not significantly cut rates in the short term, and there are currently no clear positive signals on the macro front.
The second core signal: technical indicators. From a daily chart perspective, Ethereum's 50-day moving average is $3094.22, and the 200-day moving average is $3373.63. The current price is below the 50-day moving average, indicating a weak trend in the short term. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines remain in a death cross state; although the green bars have narrowed, they still appear strong, indicating that bearish momentum has not fully released. The RSI indicator at 47.21 is in a neutral range and has not entered the oversold zone, so it is not yet the best time to buy the dip.
The third core signal: institutional fund flow. Recently, institutional funds have shown differentiation. Institutions like BitMine Immersion are increasing their holdings of Ethereum, but some ETF products have seen short-term fund outflows. Institutional actions are crucial; they are the 'smart money' in the market. If institutional funds continue to flow back, Ethereum will have the potential for stabilization and rebound; if funds continue to flow out, the pressure for correction will be significant.
The fourth core signal: ecological activity level. After the Ethereum Fusaka upgrade, Layer-2 transaction fees decreased by 40%-60%, and trading activity has improved, but the situation of mainnet transactions being diverted to Layer-2 is becoming increasingly obvious. The ecosystem is the core value support of Ethereum. If more quality applications are launched, increasing the demand for mainnet usage, it will drive the price up; if the ecological development falls short of expectations, it will be difficult for the price to break through significantly.
Based on these four signals, my personal view is that it is not yet the best time to buy the dip. In the short term, it is very likely to maintain low-level fluctuations. I suggest everyone continue to observe and not enter blindly. If Ethereum stabilizes above $3000, and institutional funds continue to flow back, with MACD showing a golden cross, then it may be a good time to try a small position; if it falls below $2800, avoid it directly and wait for a lower entry point.
Finally, a reminder to avoid pitfalls: during extreme emotions, it is easy to engage in 'emotional trading,' either panicking and selling at a loss or blindly buying the dip. Both actions are fatal. It's essential to remain rational, strictly control your positions, and not be swayed by market emotions.
Follow me@币圈罗盘 , next time I will take you through the underlying logic of contract strategy to help you avoid detours and earn real profits!#比特币流动性 $BTC $ETH
