If you've been paying attention to Ethereum lately, you might feel that it's like a 'laid-back' young person, oscillating between $2900 and $3100, seemingly lacking passion. However, as an analyst who has been navigating this market for many years, I want to tell you: beneath this apparent calm, an exciting silent game is unfolding.
Just last week, ETH suddenly surged by 16%, reaching a high of $3020. This surge did not come out of nowhere but is supported by solid underlying logic.
Whales are quietly taking action.
While retail investors are still anxious about short-term fluctuations, smart money has already begun to position itself. According to the data I track, whale wallets have accumulated over $1.4 billion worth of ETH in the bottom region.
Even more surprisingly, the ETH balance on exchanges has dropped to 10,200,000, the lowest level in the past nine years. What does this mean? Simply put, the liquidity that can be easily sold in the market is drying up.
On one hand, the number of people wanting to buy is continuously increasing, while on the other hand, the available selling chips are continually decreasing. This change in supply and demand often signals that a significant price change is imminent.
The real story revealed by on-chain activity
Price is just a surface phenomenon; the real value is reflected in network usage. What impresses me is that despite the lackluster price performance, the number of active addresses on the Ethereum network is steadily increasing.
In December, the on-chain daily average added 163,000 active addresses, an increase of more than 30% compared to July. The week-over-week growth rate even reached 22%. This is not a speculative-driven short-term behavior, but a reflection of real ecological participation.
As an analyst who has been tracking Ethereum for a long time, I believe this indicates that Ethereum's fundamentals are quietly improving, while the market may not yet be fully aware of this.
Technical upgrades are severely underestimated
The Pectra upgrade in January next year is worth paying attention to. This upgrade plans to optimize account abstraction, aiming to increase network throughput from 60 million to 80 million.
But interestingly, the market seems oblivious to this upgrade. In my communications, many investors are even unaware of the specifics of this upgrade. This cognitive gap often creates the best investment window.
From historical experience, significant upgrades to Ethereum may be overlooked by the market in the short term, but will always be reflected in the price in the long term. The current Fusaka upgrade has significantly enhanced ETH's value capture ability, with a daily burning of 1527 ETH, of which blob fees contribute as much as 98%.
Trader sentiment and market cycles
Currently, market sentiment is distinctly polarized. On one hand, traders like Joshua continue to hold long positions; on the other hand, there are conservative voices suggesting that mainstream coins have not yet fully hit the bottom.
This divergence is actually healthy and normal. When everyone’s opinions align, it often means that the market is about to reverse.
From the cyclical position, we may be in an important accumulation phase. Analysts like Tom Lee believe that ETH is entering a 'super cycle' similar to Bitcoin, which may have enormous upside potential in the long term.
My personal views and operational strategies
Although the daily chart shows that ETH is still constrained by the downward trend line, the dense area of EMA (between $3190 and $3400) constitutes resistance, I notice that every time the price approaches $2800, it encounters strong support.
This process of repeatedly testing support is actually building a solid bottom foundation. The market is shaking off the hesitant holders to accumulate energy for the next wave of upward movement.
For those who truly understand the value of Ethereum, this current stage is not a risk, but an opportunity.
My advice is:
Shift focus from intraday fluctuations to long-term value propositions
Adopt a batch layout strategy to avoid heavy positions at once
Focus on fundamental indicators such as network activity and development progress
The short-term sentiment of the market is like the weather, unpredictable; but long-term value is like the climate, with patterns to follow. Staying rational when others are fearful and being vigilant when the data is optimistic is key to surviving in this market long-term.
"Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow in skepticism, mature in optimism, and die in euphoria." Currently, Ethereum is in the 'growing in skepticism' phase, which may be the best gift for patient investors.
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