I am an old investor born in 1989, now a full-time cryptocurrency trader with assets worth tens of millions. Let me tell you why, by 2040, even if you only have 0.1 Bitcoin in your hands, you might never spend it all.
I wanted to write about this topic last October when Bitcoin was still under $70,000. Procrastination hit, and now Bitcoin has surpassed $120,000. Let's take $55,000 (approximately 400,000 RMB) as the baseline price for 2024 and conduct a bold thought experiment.
This is not investment advice; it is purely a brainstorming session about the possibilities of Bitcoin's future.
A shocking thought experiment: Why you may never spend 1 bitcoin in your lifetime.
Imagine that in 2017, after careful consideration, you decided to invest 10,000 yuan to buy 1 bitcoin as a 'long-term storage tool.' You specified not to touch it for 5 years, immediately transferring it to a personal wallet after purchase, securely storing the private key, and then completely ignoring price fluctuations.
After 5 years, starting from January 2022, you sell only 3,000 yuan worth of bitcoin each month for daily expenses (assuming operations on the 1st of each month). The results are surprising:
From January 2022 to November 2024, over nearly 3 years, you have only used 0.46 bitcoins, exchanging for 105,000 yuan.
The account still has 0.54 bitcoins remaining, valued at 340,000 yuan at the current market price.
More importantly, as the price of the coin rises, the amount of bitcoin you need to use each year decreases: 0.191 in 2022, 0.165 in 2023, and only 0.079 in 2024.
Assuming an average annual growth rate of 51% for Bitcoin from 2019 to 2024 (with an average price of 50,000 yuan in 2019 and 400,000 yuan in 2024), and your consumption habits remain stable. Continuing the projection to 2040, the results are shocking: The price of 1 bitcoin could reach 290 million yuan! Meanwhile, you might spend only 0.64 bitcoins in your lifetime, leaving 0.36 bitcoins that seem to be enchanted, no matter how you try, you can never spend it all.
I used the multi-cycle K-line trading method for 9 years: Three steps to determine direction, point, and timing.
When I first entered the crypto world, I also kept a close eye on the 1-minute K-line, with my heart racing alongside the K-line. The result was either buying high or selling high, repeatedly being educated by the market. Until a senior pointed out to me: The problem lies in only focusing on one cycle!
Here I share my multi-cycle K-line trading method, honed over 9 years, which helps you improve trading accuracy in three simple steps.
1. 4-hour K-line: Set direction, look at the big trend.
This cycle effectively filters out market noise, making trends clear at a glance.
Upward trend: Highs and lows are synchronously increasing, the operational strategy is to buy low during pullbacks.
Downward trend: Highs and lows are synchronously decreasing, the operational strategy is to short during rebounds.
Consolidation: Prices fluctuate back and forth within a specific range, during which the operating frequency should be reduced to avoid passive damage.
Core point: Trading in the direction of the trend is key to success; trading against it often leads to losses.
2. 1-hour K-line: Define intervals, find key points.
After determining the overall direction, use the 1-hour chart to accurately locate support and resistance levels.
When prices approach key positions such as trend lines, moving averages, or previous lows, it may be a good entry point.
When the price approaches previous highs or important resistance levels, or when a top technical pattern appears, consider profit-taking or reducing your position.
The purpose of this cycle is to help us find more precise trading areas and avoid blind entry.
3. 15-minute K-line: Seize the opportunity, strike precisely.
Small cycles are only responsible for finding entry opportunities, not for judging large trends.
Small cycle reversal signals appear near key price levels (e.g., bullish engulfing, bottom divergence, golden cross, etc.).
A breakthrough accompanied by increased trading volume is more reliable, avoiding deception from false moves.
Multi-cycle collaborative operation steps:
Use the 4-hour chart to judge the main trend direction (long or short).
Use the 1-hour chart to determine support and resistance areas.
Use the 15-minute chart to find specific entry signals.
Key reminder: If multiple cycles show inconsistent directions, it’s better to maintain a flat position and observe rather than risk opening a position. When operating in small cycles, be sure to set stop-losses to avoid being caught by short-term fluctuations. The perfect combination of trend, position, and timing is far more reliable than simply staring at the K-line chart and guessing.
Essential for traders: 17 essential versions of closing strategies.
Any trade, before closing, floating profits are just numbers. Below are the most practical closing strategies validated by my practice:
Basic profit-taking strategy:
Method One: Set the same points for stop-loss and profit-taking, with a success rate of over 50%.
Method Two: Set the profit-taking at twice the stop-loss, with a success rate of 40% to make a profit.
Method Three: Set the profit-taking at three times the stop-loss, with a success rate of only 20-25%.
Trailing stop-loss strategy: A tool for trend traders.
Advantages: It can lock in profits while giving enough space for market fluctuations.
Note: The tracking point is not the smaller the better, it must be adjusted according to market fluctuations.
Technical indicators for closing positions:
Moving averages: Highly effective when there is a clear trend, effectiveness diminishes during consolidation.
Bollinger Bands: For long positions, when the K-line touches the upper band and closes below it, set the stop-loss at the lowest price of that K-line.
Support/Resistance levels: Set the stop-loss near the nearest support or resistance levels; substantial profits can be achieved when the trend is clear.
Partial closing method: Do not pursue selling at the highest point.
Operation: Close part of the position every time it rises by a certain percentage (e.g., 10%).
Advantages: It locks in profits while retaining room for subsequent gains.
Three-cycle resonance trading system: Accurately grasp market pulses.
Advanced traders can further study the three-cycle resonance system. My settings are:
Hourly chart (large cycle): Judge the main trend direction.
15-minute chart (medium cycle): Confirm position and formation.
5-minute chart (small cycle): Precisely locate the entry point.
Operational logic: The best trading opportunity occurs only when three cycles show the same trend direction. The large cycle determines the small cycle, and the small cycle can also affect the large cycle.
Advancing in the crypto world: 'Counter-套路' underlying logic.
After going through the initial stage of 'chasing highs and selling lows', the following three underlying logics can help you transition from 'not losing' to 'making big profits':
Abandon the illusion of 'absolute safety' and build a multi-dimensional risk matrix.
Allocate 60% of your positions to core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Invest 30% of funds in potential projects supported by actual data and user growth.
Remaining 10% can be a small bet, but risk control is necessary.
Break through the limitations of numerical profit-taking and focus on on-chain fund movements.
Simply setting a strategy of 'sell after earning 50%' is too simplistic in the cryptocurrency circle.
When the coin price surges and on-chain data is abnormal, you should consider reducing your position even if the profit has not reached the target.
Use the 'smart grid strategy' during consolidation periods to achieve automatic arbitrage.
Within the set range (e.g., Bitcoin between 30,000 and 40,000 USD), automatically increase positions after a certain decline and decrease positions after the same amplitude of increase.
Last year, I achieved an additional 23% return during the consolidation period using this strategy.
Conclusion: The mindset in trading coins determines the final returns.
As a 'veteran' born in 1989, I now live a simple and free life: running in the morning, making my own breakfast, reviewing trades, walking in the park in the afternoon, and keeping an eye on market dynamics at night. I withdraw 100,000 yuan from the crypto market each month, feeling it has minimal impact on my assets.
There is a saying I strongly agree with: The boundaries of knowledge determine the boundaries of wealth; a person can only earn money within the scope of their understanding. The mindset in trading coins is crucial: do not panic during a big drop, do not be greedy during a big rise, and prioritize securing profits. For ordinary people with limited resources, being steady and prudent is the way to survive in the long run.
Even if one bitcoin truly reaches 290 million yuan in 2040, I hope you can maintain a calm mindset. After all, gaining is my fortune, losing is my fate. Investment is just a part of life, not everything.
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