We will delve into BTC technology, macroeconomic changes, and funding conditions weekly, reviewing and presenting practical strategies and previewing significant upcoming events for reference.
Author: Conaldo
Source: Odaily
Odaily specially invited market analyst Conaldo, a master's degree in financial statistics from Columbia University, has focused on U.S. stock quantitative trading since university and gradually expanded into Bitcoin and other digital assets. He has developed a systematic quantitative trading model and risk control system in practice; he possesses keen data insight into market fluctuations and is committed to continuous in-depth work in professional trading, pursuing stable returns. He will delve into BTC technology, macroeconomic changes, and funding conditions weekly, reviewing and presenting practical strategies and previewing significant upcoming events for reference.
Core summary:
• From a macro technical perspective (see Figure 3 below): In the Bitcoin daily chart, the long-term bull market trend line (since the end of 2022) and the recent adjustment downtrend line (since the October 2025 peak) are about to converge. Currently, the market is in a recovery oscillation period after breaking the long-term trend, and Bitcoin's price is under dual pressure. Before the price can break through this dual pressure with strong volume, all upward trends can only be viewed as rebounds under a bearish pattern. Whether these two key trend lines are effectively broken will serve as the final basis for judging the mid-term direction of the market.
• Core viewpoint verification: The core judgment proposed last week that 'the market will likely shift into a oscillation adjustment pattern' is highly consistent with the actual market trends. The long and short sides repeatedly contested the $87,500 - $89,000 area, and the mid-week adjustment low of $84,456 had an approximate error rate of about 1.18% compared to the upper edge of the predicted support area at $83,500.
• Strategy execution effectiveness verification: Last week's trading strictly followed the established strategy, successfully completing four operations, achieving a total return of 2.14%.
The following text will review market predictions, strategy execution, and specific trading processes in detail.
One. Review of Bitcoin's market last week (12.15~12.21)
1. Review of last week's market trend predictions and operational strategies:
In last week's forward-looking analysis, it was clearly pointed out that the market will likely shift into an oscillation adjustment pattern. Among them, the $87,500 - $89,000 area was defined as a key observation zone, and the outcome of the long and short contest in this area will directly determine the market's short-term direction choice. It is particularly important to note that if this area is effectively broken, it will directly affect the strength and depth of subsequent price adjustments. The following is a strategy review and analysis.
① Review of market trend predictions:
• Core pressure level: First pressure at $92,500 - $94,500; second pressure at $96,500 - $98,500.
• Core support level: First support at $87,500 - $89,000; second support at $80,000 - $83,500.
② Review of operational strategies:
• Medium-term strategy: Maintain about 65% medium-term positions (short positions).
• Short-term strategy: To respond to market trends, we have initially drafted two short-term operation plans, A and B. Based on the actual evolution of the market, we ultimately adopted Plan B as the core strategy and executed it.
• Opening positions: If the coin price breaks below the $87,500 - $89,000 area and is confirmed, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk control: Stop-loss set above $89,000.
• Closing positions: When the coin price dips to the $80,000 - $83,500 area and shows resistance, close all short positions and take profit.
2. Last week, four short-term operations were successfully completed according to the established plan (Figure 1), achieving a total return of 2.14%. Specific trading details and reviews are as follows:
Bitcoin 30-minute candlestick chart: (Momentum quantification model + arbitrage trading model)
Figure 1
① Trading details summary:
② Short-term trading review:
• First trade (profit of 0.73%): We strictly adhered to the 'shorting in the direction of the effective breakdown of key points' approach. When the market triggered, the arbitrage trading model simultaneously issued a top signal, and we decisively established a 30% short position, ultimately taking profit when the price fell back near the previous low support area.
• Second and third trades (cumulative profit of 1.41%): Based on the 'shorting when the rebound encounters resistance at the core pressure area' operational model. When the coin price hits the $87,500 - $89,000 area and encounters resistance, two models provided resonance signals, successfully completing these two trades.
• Fourth trade (profit of 0): The logic for this position is consistent with the previous two trades. It should be emphasized that this time we strictly executed the principle of 'when floating profit reaches 1%, immediately move the stop-loss to the opening cost price', resulting in this trade ultimately being closed at break-even.
Two. Quantitative technical analysis: Based on multi-model and multi-dimensional operations.
Combining last week's market operations, the author will comprehensively use multi-dimensional analytical models to conduct an in-depth analysis of the evolution of Bitcoin's internal structure.
Bitcoin weekly candlestick chart: (Momentum quantification model + sentiment quantification model)
Figure 2
1. As shown in (Figure 2), from the weekly chart analysis:
• Momentum quantification model: After last week's adjustment, the two momentum indicator lines continue to operate below the zero axis. Despite the rebound trend in previous weeks, which caused the negative momentum bars to not show significant expansion, the current market structure remains weak, and caution is needed for further release of adjustment pressure risks.
Momentum quantification model indicates: Bitcoin price decline index: High.
• Sentiment quantification model: Blue sentiment line value 50.46, strength zero; yellow sentiment line value 23.16, strength zero, peak value is 0.
Sentiment quantification model indicates: Bitcoin price pressure and support index: Neutral.
• Digital monitoring model: As shown in the chart, the price has been below the long-short (yellow-blue line) boundary for 5 weeks, and the probability of effective breakdown has increased. Short-term bottom digital signals (above 9) have not yet appeared.
The above data indicates: Bitcoin is in a downward trend, entering a bearish market at the weekly level, and caution is advised regarding adjustment risks.
Bitcoin daily candlestick chart:
Figure 3
2. As shown in (Figure 3), from the daily chart analysis:
• Momentum quantification model: In last week's market, two momentum lines experienced repeated crossings from 'golden cross to death cross to golden cross' below the zero axis, and the trading volume has not increased, with positive momentum bars showing little growth.
Momentum quantification model indicates: Both long and short sides are fiercely contesting market control, with weak long momentum.
• Sentiment quantification model: After last week's Sunday close, the blue sentiment line value is 17, strength zero; yellow sentiment line value is 45, strength zero.
Sentiment quantification model indicates: Pressure and support index: Neutral.
The above data suggests: The daily level is in a bearish market, and the short-term market trend still has fluctuations.
Three. Market predictions for this week (12.22~12.28)
1. It is expected that the market will mainly present a wide-range oscillation pattern this week. The core observation range is $89,500 - $91,000, and the outcome of the competition in this area will determine the short-term direction:
• If effectively broken: it will mean an increase in adjustment intensity, and the expected adjustment range will expand, with the cycle correspondingly extended.
• If effectively stabilized: the market is expected to continue a rebound, but the rebound space is expected to be relatively limited.
2. Core pressure level:
• First resistance area: $89,500 - $91,000
• Second pressure area: $93,000 - $94,500
• Important pressure area: Around $97,000
3. Core support level:
• First support level: $86,500 - $87,500
• Second support level: $83,500 - $84,500
• Important support level: Around $80,000.
Fourth, operational strategies this week (excluding sudden news impacts) (12.22~12.28)
1. Medium-term strategy: Maintain about 65% medium-term positions (short positions).
2. Short-term strategy: Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss points, and look for 'arbitrage' opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30 minutes as the operational cycle).
3. Focus on observing the tug-of-war between long and short sides in the $89,500 - $91,000 area and the gains and losses. To respond to market conditions, we have drafted two short-term operation plans, A and B:
• Plan A: If this area effectively stabilizes:
• Opening positions: If the coin price rebounds to the $93,000 - $94,500 area and encounters resistance, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk control: Stop-loss for short positions set above $96,000.
• Closing positions: When the coin price falls to the $89,500 - $91,000 area and shows resistance, close all short positions and take profit.
• Plan B: If this area is effectively broken:
• Opening positions: If the coin price breaks below this area and is confirmed, establish a 30% short position.
• Risk control: Stop-loss set above $92,000.
• Closing positions: When the coin price dips to the $83,500 - $84,500 area and shows resistance, consider partially or fully closing positions and taking profit.
Five. Special reminder
1. At the time of opening positions: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.
2. When profits reach 1%: Move the stop-loss to the opening cost price (breakeven point) to ensure capital safety.
3. When profits reach 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit position.
4. Continuous tracking: After each 1% profit, the stop-loss position will move up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in existing profits.
(Note: The 1% profit trigger threshold mentioned above can be flexibly adjusted by investors according to their own risk preferences and the volatility of the assets.)
Sixth, macro outlook and key events this week (12.22~12.28 | Christmas week)
1. The Christmas holiday compresses trading hours, significantly reducing liquidity.
This week, the U.S. stock market will close early on Wednesday and be closed all day on Thursday. The combination of holiday factors and year-end settlement leads to overall low market liquidity, making prices more susceptible to emotions and unilateral capital, thus cautioning against 'false breaks' and amplified short-term volatility under low trading volume.
2. Expectations for the Federal Reserve chair nomination heat up, with policy continuity becoming a market focus.
The market is watching whether Trump will announce the next Federal Reserve chairman during the Christmas holiday period. Currently, Kevin Hassett's nomination probability is significantly ahead, with his policy stance seen as leaning towards 'predictable gradual adjustments.'
(If the nomination materializes, it will help stabilize interest rate expectations and risk appetite in the short term; if an unexpected candidate appears, it may trigger phase fluctuations in interest rates and the dollar.)
3. The U.S. third-quarter data concludes, verifying the 'soft landing' narrative.
The U.S. third-quarter GDP, personal consumption expenditures, and core PCE revision data released on Tuesday will be used to confirm whether economic resilience and inflation paths align with previous judgments.
(If data is moderately revised, the market is more likely to maintain pricing on the interest rate cut path for next year; if there is a significant upward revision, it may raise long-term rates.)
4. Employment data as a marginal observation indicator at year-end.
The initial jobless claims data released on Wednesday, although not trend-significant, is still an auxiliary signal to observe whether the labor market shows signs of loosening before and after the holiday.
(Currently leaning more towards 'stability rather than deterioration,' with limited expected impact on the market.)
5. The Bank of Japan's dynamics provide a reference for global liquidity.
The speech of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo and the November unemployment rate data will continue to influence the market's judgment on the normalization pace of Japan's monetary policy.
(If the volatility of the yen expands, it may create emotional disturbances for global risk assets, especially U.S. stocks and the crypto market.)
The financial market is ever-changing, and all market analysis and trading strategies need to be dynamically adjusted. All views, analytical models, and operational strategies mentioned in this article originate from personal technical analysis and are for personal trading logs only, not constituting any investment advice or operational basis. The market has risks; investors should exercise caution and DYOR.
