I am Sister Xu. This morning, as soon as I opened my eyes, various groups were sharing a picture saying the market has warmed up, the total market value has returned to 30 trillion US dollars, and several coins have risen more than 50% in a day. Many people are starting to get restless again, asking me if they should jump in.
My core viewpoint and sentiment can be summarized in one sentence: Stay calm, don’t act! This is not a true signal of market recovery; it feels more like a flash game played by big funds before Christmas, specifically designed to harvest the anxious retail investors. I am not only not excited right now, but I am even more alert.
1. What exactly is going on with this wave of recovery? The data reveals the truth.
The news says that the total market capitalization has risen to 3.086 trillion USD, which looks good. But the key lies in the following sentence: Some tokens in the Binance Alpha sector have risen sharply.
Who is rising? The ones rising are PINGPONG, RAVE, ZKP, BEAT, and they are concentrated in Binance's Alpha sector. What does this sector mean? Simply put, it is a selection of projects that Binance believes have alpha excess return opportunities, usually with a small market cap.
Why is it rising? More than 50% increase in one day is absolutely impossible to be driven by retail investors in a market where overall trading volume is sluggish and everyone is in a wait-and-see mood. It looks more like a few funds have chosen these small-cap coins, using a small amount of capital to quickly push up the prices, creating a localized profit effect to attract attention.
How are most people doing? Another part of the article that many people overlook states: The meme sector continues to cool down, with a total market value drop of 0.6%. This is the true temperature of the market. Meme coins are a magnifying glass for retail sentiment; their cooling down indicates that the vast majority of retail investors have not participated and have no money to invest. The market is not experiencing a broad rise.
My sentiment is: extreme skepticism. Using a few small coins' surges to claim the market is warming up is like declaring a national sports level as the best in the world based on a single team's victory; it is a serious mislead. For retail investors, this is not an opportunity, but bait.
Second, looking at the information from the entire network: why is this a dangerous game?
I checked more data and market background, and the situation is clearer than the title:
Trading volume is a hard injury: Although the total market capitalization looks good, the overall market trading volume is still at a low level. Without sustained increasing trading volume support, all rises are castles in the air, and the drop will be faster. This surge of small coins is likely accompanied by a very high turnover rate, with the rise being just to offload.
The timing is very subtle: This week is Christmas week, and US stock trading hours are shortened, with the market closed on Thursday. The global mainstream financial markets are in a 'half-holiday' state. In such a time to push up prices, the cost is lower, and the resistance is smaller because large institutional funds are doing very little. By the time everyone returns after the holidays, the funds that pushed up the prices may have already withdrawn.
The macro focus remains unchanged: what the market really cares about is whether Trump will announce a new Federal Reserve chairman nomination on Christmas. This selection will determine the cost of global funds next year. Before this decisive news is released, large funds will never enter the market on a large scale. So, the current fluctuations are just irrelevant interludes, not the main theme.
Therefore, my judgment is: the current market is in a vacuum period of uncertainty. The old stories can't be stirred up, and the new stories haven't arrived yet. Large funds are in wait-and-see mode, with only some speculative funds using holiday effects and retail investors' anxiety to create localized hotspots, leading investors into the trap.
Three, straightforward advice for retail investors: what to do now, what not to do.
In the face of such false warming and real traps in the market, your operations must be more calm and conservative than usual.
Three things you absolutely should not do:
Do not chase after those coins that have risen by 50%: If you rush in now, you are just picking up the last baton. This kind of rise is unsustainable; once the funds withdraw, the drop will be very severe.
Do not hastily increase your positions in mainstream coins because of the word 'warming': The trends of BTC and ETH are still weak, with no signs of independent strength. Their true direction needs to wait for the macro situation to be determined.
Do not play with high-leverage contracts: In this volatile market with unclear direction, a reverse fluctuation can wipe out a high-leverage account.
Three things you should do now:
Check your positions: If you have followed my advice and reduced your positions during the rebound, then you should feel relaxed now, with cash on hand. If you are still heavily invested, especially in altcoins, my suggestion remains: take advantage of any rebound to continue reducing your positions.
Hold tight to your cash: Cash is not waste; it is your trump card for buying cheap chips when the market makes mistakes. The priority of cash now far exceeds any coin that seems to have opportunities.
Patiently wait for two signals: Either wait for the macro level to settle, and the market selects a new direction; or wait for the market to experience a real panic sell-off, dropping to an attractive price. Apart from that, look more and act less.
Summary and my current state
Today's news reinforces my judgment over the past week: The market is in a weak period, and any rise without broad public support and macro backing is weak and dangerous.
My personal status and plan are:
Position: Extremely low. Only the core BTC and ETH spot holdings, and stop-loss levels set very strictly.
Cash: Over 80%. This is my entire confidence to get through this volatile period and wait for the next decisive opportunity.
Mindset: Not anxious, not itchy. I absolutely do not envy others' 50% gains in one day because I know the risks behind it are losing all capital. My goal is to survive until the next real bull market, not to die in the fireworks before dawn.
Remember, in the crypto world, if you don't understand the market, don't act. Money that cannot be earned, do not lose. Facing this kind of Christmas flash market, the best strategy is to be a calm observer. Protect your capital well and wait for the real stars to appear on the program list.
Real market turning points never happen when emotions are high. The on-chain smart money movements and derivatives market sentiment indicators I monitor still send clear cautious signals. Only when these cold indicators turn first will it be a moment worthy of our high attention. Stay alert, stay patient.
Finally, I want to mention that Sister Xu plans to ambush a potential coin with a very high likelihood of a strong surge, with an expected space of 7-10 times without any problem. Friends who want to follow this big opportunity can scan the code below to join the chat room for direct sharing.
