The combined reading of the ETH vs BTC composite indicator and the relative volatility between Ethereum and Bitcoin on Binance provides an accurate picture of the market’s current position within the broader risk cycle The composite indicator which integrates relative price momentum, trading volume ratio, and the price ratio between ETH and BTC currently hovers around -0.46.
This negative reading indicates that Ethereum continues to lag behind Bitcoin in overall performance on Binance’s spot market. Historically, when this indicator remains below zero, it suggests that the market has not yet undergone a structural shift in leadership and that Bitcoin remains the benchmark asset against which both risk and liquidity are measured. A sustained break above the zero level would represent the key signal for the start of an ETH-led market phase; however, based on current data, such a shift has not yet materialized.
At the same time, relative volatility dynamics between ETH and BTC add an important dimension related to market risk appetite. Current readings point to a level near 1.5, following a clear downward trend from higher levels observed in previous months. This suggests that while Ethereum remains more volatile than Bitcoin, the intensity of that volatility is gradually declining. In practical terms, this reflects a cautious market environment in which participants are not yet prepared to meaningfully increase exposure to higher-risk assets. Historically, the early stages of Altseason have coincided with a sustained expansion in Ethereum’s relative volatility versus Bitcoin, signaling a broader willingness to assume greater risk conditions that are not yet clearly present.
Together, these signals indicate that Altseason conditions are forming structurally, but still lack the momentum confirmation required for a decisive start.
Written by Arab Chain
