Altcoin investors might well finish the year 2025 without seeing any profits in their portfolios. Yet, many analysts remain optimistic despite a 30% drop in the market capitalization of altcoins (TOTAL2) compared to the peak earlier this year.
Why do analysts think that the bear market for altcoins might be entering its final phase? The following points highlight the main reasons.
Tokens in an opportunity phase
Data from CryptoQuant shows that only about 3% of altcoins on Binance are trading above the 200-day moving average. This level constitutes a historic low.
Analyst Darkfost attributes this phenomenon mainly to a lack of liquidity and investor caution. Investors currently prioritize capital preservation over exposure to risky assets.
The fact that most altcoins are trading significantly below their long-term averages indicates widespread undervaluation due to negative sentiment. This is why tokens such as XRP, TON, and ADA are failing to rebound despite solid fundamentals.
Despite these gloomy prospects, historical comparisons suggest that such periods of weakness often offer great opportunities for patient investors.
"Even if it may seem counterintuitive, this type of period generally offers the best opportunities. This phase could last for some time, especially if the market enters a prolonged bearish phase," said Darkfost.
Similarly, fear and a lack of interest from retail investors often unlock the best price zones. Large investors generally take advantage of these moments to accumulate.
CrediBULL Crypto highlighted this factor as a key signal for identifying the market bottom and argues that attention, not capital, manifests first.
When retail investors lose interest, the big hands step in to buy. As soon as the first green candles appear, retail attention gradually returns, and their participation accelerates the next phase of the movement.
A bottom reached?
Several technical indicators suggest that the bearish altcoin market is nearing its end. Michaël van de Poppe believes that the current altcoin market capitalization level constitutes strong support. He describes this area as a "zone to hold."
"Ultimately, it seems we are at a crucial support level. It seems wise to remain positioned at this level. Strong rebounds suggest that green candles could start from here," predicted Michaël van de Poppe.
Other signals support this perspective:
The market capitalization ratio of altcoins, excluding the top 10, relative to Bitcoin is at its strongest support since 2017.
The dominance of altcoins is currently at levels comparable to those during the COVID crisis, which was previously followed by a strong recovery.
These elements suggest that altcoins are approaching the final phase of their decline and that a DCA strategy may prove relevant if initiated starting in December.
However, some analysts continue to warn about the risks and believe that an altcoin season may not arrive even in 2026. Indeed, venture capital flows remain low, and market sentiment may take some time to recover.
The moral of the story: all comes to those who wait for altcoin season.
