After outperforming Bitcoin last week, Ethereum continues. The altcoin has just crossed the $3,000 mark, driven by a wave of accumulation from whales and a favorable derivatives market, but is this surge based on really solid foundations?
Signals are accelerating on Ethereum
The main driver of this increase is the massive arrival of new holders, with about 163,000 new addresses created each day, compared to 124,000 in July, a sign of renewed interest in the asset despite an always fragile macro context. This expansion of the number of wallets occurs even as on-chain activity remains moderate, which raises questions about a possible overvaluation of the price.
This divergence between price and usage is confirmed by the NVT indicator, which has reached a 16-month high and signals that Ethereum's valuation is progressing faster than the transaction volume on the network. In concrete terms, the market today seems to be driven more by speculation and anticipation than by an explosion of decentralized uses or on-chain volumes.
The context of derivatives also plays a key role: open interest on Ethereum futures contracts has fallen by about 50% since the summer. This purge of leverage reduces the risk of cascading liquidations and makes current movements healthier, although it also limits volatility in the very short term.
According to data from CryptoQuant, selling pressure is easing significantly, with forced selling volume on Binance having fallen to its lowest level since May, around $6.3 billion on average over 30 days. The market is stabilizing in a zone where sellers are tiring, without an overwhelming buying force taking over yet.
From a graphical standpoint, Ethereum has just surged by about 10% on a reversal signal related to a bullish divergence of the RSI, a pattern that had already preceded a rebound of 27% in the past. The altcoin could theoretically rise up to $3,800 if history repeats itself.
Currently, the price of Ethereum has surpassed the psychological resistance of $3,000. A significant increase in volumes would be necessary to revive a solid upward momentum towards $3,131, then $3,287.
The underlying trend remains bearish, with a price stuck between $2,800 and $3,300, and moving averages as well as momentum indicators still revealing a weakened market. A sustainable breakout of the zone between $3,300 and $3,500, accompanied by a genuine surge in volume, would send a more credible bullish reversal signal.
Finally, over a longer-term horizon, the Stoch RSI over 2 weeks is approaching its lower zone, suggesting that a local bottom is already in place or could form in 1 to 2 weeks.
The moral of the story: to conquer without peril, Ethereum triumphs without glory.
