The network hash rate of Bitcoin (BTC) decreased by 4% over the past thirty days, representing the steepest drop in nearly two years.
At the same time, increasing volatility and falling prices are putting greater pressure on miners as profits decline. However, according to investment management firm VanEck, miners' capitulation may indicate a bottom for workers.
Bitcoin's mining power decreased with weak prices and China's shutdowns affecting the network.
The Bitcoin ChainCheck report from VanEck in mid-December 2025 highlighted that the 4% decrease in network hash power was the largest since April 2024. This contraction comes amid a tough month for Bitcoin, with the price falling about 9%.
Furthermore, volatility has risen, pushing the realized volatility over 30 days above 45%, the highest level seen since April 2025.
"We typically expect the price to decline during significant drops in Bitcoin's price," wrote Matthew Sigal and Patrick Bush.
Away from price-related pressures, the Bitcoin hash rate was also affected by developments in China. Last week, BeInCrypto reported that about 400,000 devices were forced to stop operating in the Chinese province of Xinjiang.
The shutdown led to an estimated loss of 1.3 gigawatts of capacity and had a significant impact on the network. Computing power in China decreased by about 100 exahashes per second within 24 hours.
"This is likely due to the shift in power generation to demand for artificial intelligence and may lead to the removal of up to 10% of the Bitcoin network's hash power," analysts indicated.
Meanwhile, mining economics also deteriorated due to Bitcoin's price performance. According to VanEck, the breakeven electricity price for a Bitmain S19 XP mining device dropped from $0.12 in December 2024 to $0.077 by mid-December 2025, a decrease of 36%. Sigal and Bush added that:
"While miner profitability has been weak recently, many entities continue to mine despite poor economic periods because they believe in Bitcoin's future. To support the long-term hash rate of the Bitcoin network, we believe that up to 13 countries are mining with the backing of their central governments."
Historical data indicates a bullish shift.
Despite recent pressures, VanEck noted that the declining hash rate could be an "opposing bullish signal." Based on data since 2014, the report found that future Bitcoin returns tended to be stronger when the network hash rate shrank.
The future returns of Bitcoin over 90 days were positive about 65% of the time when the hash rate decreased during the previous thirty days, compared to 54% during periods of increasing hash rate.
Additionally, the average future returns over 180 days were slightly higher when the hash rate was declining, around 20.5%, compared to about 20.2% when it was rising. The pattern also persists in the long term.
"Over the 346 days since 2014, when the growth of the hash rate over 90 days was negative, future Bitcoin returns over 180 days were positive (77%) of the time, with an average return (+72%). Analysts revealed that future Bitcoin returns over 180 days were positive (~61%) and averaged (+48%).
Technical patterns support the formation of a bottom.
On the technical front, market watchers were also planning for potential bottom signals. Market analysts, including Ted Bellows, identified a 3-day upward divergence for Bitcoin, a pattern that had represented market lows in its last appearance.
"The upward divergence for Bitcoin has now been confirmed. When this occurred in the last two instances, Bitcoin formed a bottom," stated Bellows.
Whether Bitcoin will eventually see a new upward movement remains uncertain. So far, the leading cryptocurrency is still under pressure. BeInCrypto Markets data showed that Bitcoin was trading at $88,066 at the time of publication, down 1.01% over the past twenty-four hours.
