The "halving market is coming, hurry up and get on board!" "Don’t listen to them, it will definitely drop after the halving!" Recently, the debate in the crypto circle about the halving market has reached a fever pitch. Supporters of the rise say, "Supply contraction will inevitably drive prices up," while those who support the drop say, "Insufficient demand, no matter how much contraction happens, it won’t help." In fact, both sides are only partially correct; the core of the halving market is the size of the "supply-demand gap"—today, I will use specific data to help everyone calculate how large this supply-demand gap is for this halving. After reading, you will know whether to get on board or not.
First, let's calculate the contraction scale of the supply side. Taking the core currency as an example, the current block reward is 3.125 coins/block, with a new block produced every 10 minutes, resulting in a daily new supply of 3.125×6×24=450 coins; after halving, the block reward drops to 1.5625 coins/block, with a daily new supply of 1.5625×6×24=225 coins. In other words, after halving, the daily new supply decreases by 225 coins, and at the current price (assuming $40,000/coin), the daily market value of supply decreases by $9 million, totaling a monthly decrease of $270 million.
Next, let's calculate the demand side's承接能力. The承接能力 of the demand side mainly looks at two indicators: the number of active addresses on-chain and the net inflow of funds. From the number of active addresses on-chain, the average number of active addresses in the past 30 days is 850,000, while the average number of active addresses during the last halving period was 620,000. It seems that the current demand side is more active, but upon closer inspection, it can be found that among the current active addresses, the proportion of small addresses (holding less than 1 coin) has reached 78%, while it was only 65% during the last halving period—this means that the current demand side is mainly supported by retail investors, and the承接能力 is limited.
From the perspective of net inflow of funds, the average net inflow of funds in the past 30 days is $1.2 million/day, while the average net inflow during the last halving period was $2.5 million/day—the current承接能力 is only 48% of the last halving period. Combining this with the contraction scale of the supply side, the monthly market value of supply decreases by $270 million, while the current monthly net inflow of funds is 1.2×30=36 million, seemingly much greater than the supply contraction scale. However, there is a key question here: how much of this net inflow of funds is real spot demand?
According to statistics from a leading data platform, currently, 45% of the net inflow of funds is leveraged funds, not real spot demand—the real net inflow of spot funds is only $0.66 million/day, totaling $19.8 million/month. This means that the current monthly real spot demand can only cover 7.3 times the monthly new supply after halving (19.8÷2.7≈7.3), while during the last halving period, the monthly real spot demand could cover 14.8 times the monthly new supply (2.5×30×(1-30%)÷(last halving monthly supply contraction scale)≈14.8).
Through the above data calculation, we can reach a core conclusion: the supply-demand gap of this halving is much smaller than the last halving. During the last halving, the coverage multiple of real demand to supply contraction was 14.8 times, while this time it is only 7.3 times—this means that the upward momentum of this halving market is much weaker than the last one. My personal judgment is that after halving, there will likely be a slight increase, but the upward space is limited and it will be hard to exceed the last increase.
For ordinary retail investors, my advice is: if you want to get involved, you must control your position and not exceed 30% of your total funds; at the same time, closely monitor the changes in the net inflow of real spot funds and the number of active addresses on-chain. If these two indicators show a decline, decisively stop-loss and exit. Remember, the crypto market has never been about 'gambling on size', but rather 'calculating probabilities'. Only by understanding the supply and demand data can you increase your chances of making a profit.
If you feel helpless and confused about trading right now and want to learn more about the cryptocurrency world and first-hand cutting-edge information, follow me@标哥说币
