Zcash price has fallen sharply, with a decline of over 6% in the last 24 hours. Despite the drop, it is still up about 9% compared to last week. However, this decline does not seem to be random. The market is reacting to a technical change that has been important several times in recent months.
ZEC is now testing an opportunity where trend, positioning, and selling pressure begin to converge. If this situation is confirmed at today's close, the risk for continued decline increases rapidly.
A long-term technical boundary is now threatened
Zcash is breaking down from a level that has quietly served as support for price stability in recent months. That level is the 50-day exponential moving average, or 50-day EMA. EMA is a trend indicator that smooths price movements and often acts as dynamic support during strong or healthy trends.
For ZEC, this level has been very important. On November 30, when Zcash closed below the 50-day EMA, the price dropped nearly 30% in just a few days. A similar drop happened again on December 14. When the price closed below the same level, ZEC fell about 8% in the following sessions.
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Zcash is now trading again below this line. If today's candle closes below it, history shows that the movement is usually not over. Therefore, the current drop is more significant than an ordinary red day. It signals a possible transition from consolidation to continued decline.
Derivatives and spot flows become negative at the same time
You can already see the reaction in traders' behavior.
Positioning on perpetual futures shows that most groups have been net short in the last 24 hours. Top traders, whales, and public figures (possibly KOLs) have all increased their short positions, indicating that more and more believe the price drop is not over.
Smart capital is slightly diverging and has reduced its short positions a bit. But this change is not enough to reverse the overall trend. Overall, derivative data indicates that traders are preparing for continued decline rather than a quick recovery.
Spot market data reinforces this picture. On Solana-based ZEC markets, exchange balances increased by over 47% in just one day. Such an increase often indicates that coins are being sent to exchanges, and it usually precedes selling pressure, even if the number is not that high.
When both derivative positioning and inflows in spot markets point in the same direction, the signal becomes stronger.
Together, these movements show that the market does not view the loss of trend support as a false breakout. The market is positioning itself as if the risk of continued decline is real.
Zcash price levels and 10% risk?
If Zcash's price drop is confirmed, the first important level is near 410 USD. This area has served as short-term support during recent retracements. If it doesn't hold, the decline is likely to accelerate.
Below that area, the next major downward target is near 371 USD. A drop from the current level to that zone represents about a 10% decline, similar to previous EMA-triggered drops. If selling pressure becomes stronger, deeper levels near 295 USD may come into focus, based on previous consolidation zones.
The invalidation is clear. Zcash must clearly reclaim the 50-day EMA and then move above the area of 470 USD to show that the decline has failed. Only above that area does the structure begin to stabilize again, where 549 USD is the next resistance.
Until then, the risk remains greater downward. Zcash has lost an important trend indicator, traders are defensive, and spot flows show that supply is going against the market. If the daily close confirms this, continued decline is the most likely scenario.
