The XRP price has quietly slipped into a tricky position. The price has fallen about 9% over the last 30 days, momentum feels weak and positive talk about the token has clearly turned negative. At first glance, it looks like weakness. But XRP has often made its best moves when enthusiasm has faded.
This time it may be just the poor sentiment that could soon create the next movement. Perhaps led by an important group of owners.
The problem: The positive sentiment falls as short-term holders sell
The core problem is not the price. It's the sentiment.
XRP's positive social sentiment has now reached the lowest level in three months, and has fallen rapidly from previous peaks. This figure shows how often XRP is mentioned positively on social platforms. When it crashes, it indicates fatigue among people, not panic and buying frenzy.
History shows that this matters.
In mid-October, sentiment fell, and then the price rose about 15% over the coming days. At the beginning of November, sentiment dropped again and after that the price went up by 17% within a week. At the end of November, the same pattern was seen, where the price rose about 14% after sentiment had bottomed.
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This time the decline in sentiment is deeper than at previous lows.
The decline in sentiment may be due to short-term holders. HODL Waves, which show how long coins have been held, indicate that wallets with XRP held for one to seven days have clearly reduced their share. That group previously held about 2.97% of the supply. Now the figure has dropped to about 1.18%, a decrease of more than 60%.
Simply put, fast, likely private money has lost interest and moved on. This is the reason for the weakness in XRP sentiment. The next part shows why it is not so bad.
The solution: Long-term holders sell less, not more
Here the story turns.
While short-term holders sell, long-term holders act the opposite. Data on long-term holders shows that selling pressure has decreased significantly.
Earlier this month, long-term holders sold about 216 million XRP per day. Now the figure has dropped to about 103 million XRP. That's more than 50% lower selling activity.
This matters because long-term holders tend to act early. When they reduce selling during weak sentiment, it often means they are accumulating or waiting patiently.
The problem for XRP is people's disinterest. But the solution is that experienced holders no longer increase supply in that disinterest.
XRP price levels that determine whether the solution works
If this sentiment-driven situation kicks in again, XRP prices will show it quickly.
A first step towards the next resistance at 2.03 USD means a rise of about 8% from today's levels. If the price passes that area, XRP can test the next resistance levels, 2.09 USD and 2.17 USD, where previous rises have stalled.
If the price goes down, XRP must hold its important support level at 1.77 USD. If it breaks, the sentiment-based thesis may disappear and show that long-term holders no longer absorb the supply.
Right now, the structure is holding together.
XRP currently has its biggest problem as the positive sentiment has vanished. But history shows that when optimism fades, weak investors leave first and strong investors come in. If it happens again, the same problems weighing down the XRP price today could become the solution that leads to the next step.
