Although the accumulation of Bitcoin ETFs and DATs has continued this year, the price of Bitcoin has not attracted as strong retail participation as in previous cycles.
Well-known market analysts, such as CryptoQuant's CEO Ki Young Ju and experienced trader Peter Brandt, have released their latest views on Bitcoin. Their assessments shed light on Bitcoin's short, medium, and long-term outlooks.
Short-term outlook
In the short term, Bitcoin may still face challenges in price recovery. This weakness is reflected in the decline of stablecoin reserves.
CryptoQuant's data shows that stablecoin reserves at the largest exchanges have significantly decreased. Capital outflows rose to nearly $1.9 billion in just 30 days.
Binance, the market-leading liquidity provider, often reflects investors' purchasing readiness through stablecoin balances. However, data shows that ERC-20 stablecoin reserves have clearly decreased both on Binance and other centralized exchanges. This trend suggests that retail investors are withdrawing from the market.
"This movement indicates a clear lack of investor interest in immediate market exposure. Instead of keeping stablecoins in the exchange waiting for opportunities, some investors have decided to withdraw their funds," analyst Darkfost commented.
As a result, Bitcoin lacks sufficient buying pressure in the short term, limiting its upside potential.
Medium-term outlook
In the medium term, CryptoQuant's founder Ki Young Ju noted that the internal capital flows within Bitcoin's chain are gradually weakening.
He explained that the realized market value has stagnated in the last month after approximately 2.5 years of continuous growth. This metric measures the total realized capitalization based on the last purchase price of each Bitcoin.
Data also shows that the PnL Index Signal, which tracks the profit and loss situation based on the realized acquisition prices of all wallets, has been sideways since the beginning of 2025. The indicator has started to decline towards the end of the year, indicating a rise in losses.
"The recovery of sentiment may take several months," Ki Young Ju predicted.
Long-term outlook
In the long term, most analysts remain optimistic. Peter Brandt, a well-known trader with experience since 1975, maintains his bullish outlook.
Brandt noted in a recent X update that Bitcoin has had five logarithmically parabolic accelerated rises in the last 15 years. After each period, there has been at least an 80 percent decline. According to him, the current cycle is not yet over.
When asked about the timing of a potential bottom, Brandt did not provide a precise answer. However, he estimated that the next bull market peak could occur in September 2029.
His theory is based on historical developments. Later market cycles generally last longer and produce more moderate percentage returns than previous cycles.
Overall, analysts estimate that Bitcoin's recovery may require several months. A new all-time high is unlikely to emerge quickly.
