The price of XRP has gradually drifted into a challenging situation. The price has dropped about 9% in the last 30 days, the mood is subdued, and positive discussions around the token have clearly weakened. At first glance, this appears to be weakness. However, XRP has a history of performing best precisely when enthusiasm wanes.
This time, the mood-dampening issue may be the very factor that lays the foundation for the next move. Perhaps under the leadership of an important wallet group.
Problem: positive sentiment collapses as short-term holders exit
The key problem is not the price. It's about sentiment.
XRP's positive social media sentiment has dropped to three-month lows, quickly falling from recent peaks. This metric tracks how often XRP is discussed positively across various social media. When the number collapses, it indicates audience fatigue, not panic buying.
History shows that this matters.
In mid-October, a similar sentiment drop preceded about a 15% rise in the following days. At the beginning of November, a local bottom in positive sentiment led to a 17% rise within a week. At the end of November, the same pattern repeated as prices rose about 14% after the sentiment bottom touch.
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Now the sentiment drop is deeper than previous lows.
Short-term holders may be behind this sentiment drop. HODL Waves, which tracks the holding period of coins, shows that wallets holding XRP for one day to one week have significantly reduced their share. This group owned about 2.97% of the supply earlier this month. Now, the figure has dropped to about 1.18%, which is more than a 60% decline.
In practice, quick, possibly retail investor money has lost interest and moved on. This is a problem pressing down on XRP's sentiment. The next section will reveal why the situation may not be as bad.
Solution: long-term holders sell less, not more
At this point, the story turns.
When short-term holders exit, long-term holders act just the opposite. Data tracking changes in long-term holders' net positions shows that selling pressure from these wallets has significantly decreased.
This month, long-term holders sold about 216 million XRP per day. The figure has now steadily decreased to about 103 million XRP, meaning that selling activity has reduced by more than 50%.
This matters because long-term holders usually act in a timely manner, not late. When they slow their distribution during weak sentiment, it often indicates quiet accumulation or strategic patience.
XRP's problem is public apathy. As a solution to this, experienced holders are no longer injecting supply into this apathy.
XRP price levels that determine whether the solution works
If this sentiment-based setup materializes again, XRP price levels will confirm it quickly.
The first move towards the next resistance level, $2.03, implies about an 8% upside from current levels. If this area is exceeded, it opens the opportunity for a larger move towards the next resistance levels of $2.09 and $2.17, where previous price rallies have slowed.
On the downside, XRP must maintain an important support level at $1.77. Falling below this would invalidate the sentiment-based view and indicate that long-term holders are no longer interested in absorbing supply.
So far, the structure remains unchanged.
XRP's biggest problem is that the positive sentiment has disappeared. However, history shows that when optimism fades, weak investors exit first, and strong ones take their place. If this pattern repeats, the same problem that weighs on XRP's price today could turn into a solution that opens up the next move.
