According to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 13.3%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates is 86.7%.

Besenet recently hinted that the Federal Reserve's policy framework may face significant adjustments, including replacing the fixed point target with an inflation "range system" and canceling the highly watched interest rate path "dot plot".

If Besenet's expectations are realized, reducing the Federal Reserve's presence would be a good thing for the financial markets, diminishing speculation around rate decisions and focusing more on the true value of U.S. stocks.

It could also be a good thing for the cryptocurrency market, reducing short-term volatility.

Let's continue to observe the changes in BTC and ETH options data. The expiration date for options on the 26th is approaching, and many data points have become distorted. It is recommended to look at the data for January 30th separately, as the institutions' position adjustments are likely nearing completion.

Overall, the IV curve for BTC and ETH is showing a downward trend, with all maturities experiencing decreasing volatility.

gamma ex also shows a positive gamma accumulation near the current price, indicating significant resistance to short-term volatility.

It is advisable for sellers to gradually close profitable positions and wait for new data to emerge after the 26th before choosing to enter.

Buyers might consider positioning themselves in advance for the direction in a week or even a month into the new year.

With Christmas and New Year's Day approaching, liquidity is decreasing, making trading more difficult. Sometimes it's better to stay still than to act.

Wishing everyone to be a friend of time and to open positions steadily~