Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market observation
The preliminary annualized quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth rate for the United States in the third quarter, released last night, recorded 4.3%, far exceeding market expectations. In response, Trump, while praising the strong GDP data, expressed dissatisfaction with the current market reaction pattern, and clearly stated that he hopes the newly appointed Federal Reserve Chairman he nominated can lower interest rates to stimulate growth when the economy is doing well, rather than suppressing the market due to inflation concerns. Under the dual impetus of geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts, the precious metals market has welcomed a hot 'Christmas market', with gold prices historically breaking through $4525, silver surpassing $72, and spot platinum and palladium also breaking through $2377 and $1918 respectively, all setting historical highs. Analysts generally have a positive outlook on the future of precious metals. Yardeni Research boldly predicts that gold prices will reach $6000 by the end of 2026 and could touch $10000 by the end of 2029. Pepperstone strategist Ahmad Assiri believes that geopolitical friction has increased the safe-haven demand for gold, and that price levels like $4500 and $70 are more like reference points in the trend rather than solid tops. Peter Grant from Zaner Metals pointed out that silver's next target is $75, with its upward momentum coming from a persistent supply-demand deficit and growth in industrial demand. Analysts at SP Angel expect gold prices to rise to $5000 next year, viewing central bank reserve diversification as a long-term driving force. Additionally, with Christmas Eve and Christmas approaching, US stocks will close early at 2 AM tomorrow. Despite expectations of loose policies and favorable economic data leading to an optimistic outlook for 2026, uncertainties in the AI industry and the impact of interest rate cuts on consumption remain potential risks.
The Bitcoin market continues to oscillate in the low liquidity environment at the end of the year, with prices hovering around $87,000 to $88,000. Bitcoin's price is hindered by the downward trend line since the historical high of $126,000, failing to break the $90,000 mark, continuing the downward trend of the fourth quarter, and market sentiment has become exceptionally weak. Data from CryptoQuant shows that the continued selling by large holders is the main reason for Bitcoin's recent underperformance, while capital is shifting towards safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole warns that if Bitcoin falls below the short-term support of $84,000 to $84,500, it may further drop to the November low of $80,000. Only by breaking through this trend line resistance can Bitcoin hope to return to an upward trend, with targets possibly aimed at $100,000. Analyst Astronomer also pointed out that a higher low is currently forming, and the low of $84,000 will be safe, while the overall pessimistic market sentiment is a contrarian bullish signal. Analyst Maartunn also mentioned that the average entry price for Bitcoin ETFs is $86,530, and this support level remains strong. BitBull observed that there is strong buying around $80,000, believing this area will become a solid bottom before the rebound in the first quarter of 2026. However, pessimist Killa predicts that the price of Bitcoin may experience significant declines to $60,000 starting in February or March after 1-2 months of oscillation.
Ethereum also broke below the $3,000 mark, struggling around $2,900. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe believes the key in the coming days is whether it can break through the 20-day moving average; if successful, it would mean the end of this round of adjustment and open the door to a new round of upward movement towards 2026. BitBull also noted that there is significant buying around $2,600, which is expected to hold this support level before a rebound in the first quarter of 2026. However, pessimistic predictions also exist; analyst Ali Charts pointed out that Ethereum seems to be forming a head and shoulders pattern, which may indicate a price correction to $2,400. StefanB stated that he would not consider going long before the price falls back to the $2,800 or even $2,712 area. Man of Bitcoin also believes that ideally, the price should first pull back to the support zone before rising. Notably, despite the overall weak market sentiment, Tom Lee's Bitmine still bought $201 million worth of Ethereum in the past 24 hours.
The situation for altcoins is particularly difficult, and the arrival of 'altcoin season' seems a long way off. Data shows that the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin has dropped 32% from its historical high in October, with multiple indicators showing the market is in a state of extreme weakness. Meanwhile, investor behavior in the South Korean market has also changed; according to a report from the Bank of Korea, investors have shifted from previous active buying to short-term profit-taking, resulting in a highly retail-oriented market with high turnover rates, contrasting with the increasingly institutional trend in the global market.
Despite the overall market downturn, some projects like PIPPIN are rebounding against the trend, surging over 30% within 24 hours due to massive capital inflows, but also accompanied by high-risk characteristics such as concentrated holdings. Looking ahead, Trader Joe's co-founder Fish predicts that the market may experience a violent and unexpected rebound after Christmas, and if the U.S. can pass legislation such as the Clarity Act in early 2026 to provide a clearer regulatory framework for the industry, it may inject new momentum into the recovery of altcoins and DeFi.
2. Key data (as of December 24, 13:00 HKT)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin: $87,157 (YTD -6.8%), daily spot trading volume $47.37 billion
Ethereum: $2,936 (YTD -12.1%), daily spot trading volume $22.06 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 24 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.1%, ETH 12%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, AVNT, GRS
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.19% / 50.81%
Sector performance: NFT sector down 9.87%, GameFi sector down 8.46%
24-hour liquidation data: a total of 78,779 people globally were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $225 million, including $76.41 million in BTC, $49.39 million in ETH, and $19.18 million in SOL
3. ETF flows (as of December 23)
Bitcoin ETF: -$188.6 million, a net outflow for 4 days
Ethereum ETF: -$95.53 million
Solana ETF: +$4.2 million
XRP ETF: +$8.19 million
4. Today's outlook
United States initial jobless claims for the week of December 20 (in ten thousand): previous value 22.4, expected value 22.4 (December 24, 21:30)
On Christmas Eve, U.S. stock markets will close early, European stock markets may close early, and Hong Kong stocks will trade half-day (expected to close early at 02:00 Beijing time on December 25)
On Christmas Day, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, European stocks, South Korean stocks, etc., will be closed, and Brent crude oil futures will suspend trading (December 25)
Humanity (H) will unlock about 105 million tokens at 8:00 AM Beijing time on December 25, with a circulation ratio of 4.79%, valued at approximately $14.8 million;
Plasma (XPL) will unlock about 88.89 million tokens at 8:00 PM Beijing time on December 25, with a circulation ratio of 4.5%, valued at approximately $11.7 million;
Today's top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization saw the largest increases: Pippin up 30.4%, Rain up 13.9%, Canton Network up 5.5%, Sky (prev. Maker) up 2.9%, Maker up 2.9%.
5. Hot news
The initial GDP value of the United States for the third quarter exceeded expectations, and core PCE met expectations
The U.S. economy expanded at a rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, the fastest growth in two years
Bank of Korea: The domestic cryptocurrency trading heat has significantly cooled, and investor behavior has shifted to concentrated profit-taking
James Wynn leveraged 40 times to go long on BTC while also opening a long position on PEPE
Trend Research bought another 46,000 ETH, accumulating over 580,000 with a floating loss of over $140 million
Trump Media transferred 2,000 BTC 8 hours ago, valued at approximately $175 million
Bitmine purchased 67,886 ETH again in the past 24 hours, valued at over $200 million
A new wallet purchased over 40,000 ETH from Binance and deposited it into Aave V3, lending out $63 million USDT
Spot gold first broke above $4,500
Upexi submitted an application to the SEC, planning to raise up to $1 billion to support Solana-related businesses
VC valuations for Fuel and Bubblemaps are currently only $110 million and $60 million, respectively, with a valuation of $1 billion
HashKey Capital's fourth fund completed a $250 million first-round fundraising
