$ZBT
🚨 2026 Federal Reserve's Major Shift: The Liquidity Fog Under Political Intervention
Powell's term end in May 2026 is becoming the eye of the storm in global markets. Trump has made it clear that the new chairperson must be "in sync," and the leading candidate Kevin Hassett's position is putting the Fed's independence to a century-long test.
📊 Breaking Down the Triple "Deadlock":
• Consensus Fracture: The December 2025 decision saw a rare occurrence of multiple dissenting votes. Hawks are worried about sticky inflation, while doves (like Milan's director) advocate for aggressive rate cuts, the factional divide has become public.
• Data Blind Spot: Due to the 43-day government shutdown, CPI and employment data are severely distorted, putting the Fed in a "blind judgment" predicament. The unemployment rate remains high at 4.6%, compounded by the inflationary aftermath of tariff expectations, making decision-making unprecedentedly difficult.
• Polarization of Expectations: Market predictions range from Goldman Sachs' rate cut theory to Macquarie's "rate hike warning," the interest rate path is becoming elusive.
Is this ultimately a catalyst for asset pricing, or a prelude to the next shock?
