Tom Lee recently said the Bitcoin price could still push above $100,000 before 2025 ends. It is a bold call, especially with Bitcoin trading sideways and momentum looking tired. At first glance, the market does not look ready. Big money flows are weakening, long-term holders are selling, and price action remains compressed.
But Bitcoin has one remaining path that could still make Lee’s prediction possible. It does not rely on fresh purchases. It relies on positioning.
Big Money And Conviction Holders Are Still Headwinds
The first problem with Tom Lee’s Bitcoin price prediction, highlighted on CNBC, stems from capital flows.
The Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, which tracks whether large capital is entering or leaving the market, remains weak. Between December 17 and December 23, the Bitcoin price moved slightly higher, but the CMF trended lower. That is a bearish sign. It shows that larger players are reducing exposure even as price holds up.
CMF readings also collapsed sharply after December 21, falling more than 200% before rebounding around 68%. The rebound looks encouraging, but CMF is still below zero. That means capital inflows remain weak, not strong.
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The second headwind comes from long-term holders. These are wallets that historically sell late, not early.
Over the past month, long-term holder net position change has stayed deeply negative. On November 23, long-term holders were selling roughly 97,800 BTC per day. By December 23, that figure had climbed to nearly 279,000 BTC sold in a single day. That’s a 185% surge.
That is a massive increase in distribution from conviction holders. When both big capital flow and long-term holders lean negatively, sustained upside becomes difficult.
The Only Way Bitcoin Can Still Reach $100,000
Despite those headwinds, Bitcoin is not out of options. But the path relies on an unlikely force.
The market is heavily skewed toward shorts.
Looking at the 30-day liquidation map, cumulative short liquidation leverage stands near $3.41 billion. Long liquidation leverage sits closer to $2.14 billion. That imbalance means more than 60% of leverage is positioned against the price going up.
This matters because when buying pressure is weak, price can still rise through forced liquidations, like earlier. In simple terms, Bitcoin does not need new buyers. It needs shorts to be wrong.
A sharp move higher would force short positions to close, which creates automatic buying. That buying can then cascade into further liquidations, even if underlying demand remains soft.
This is the only realistic mechanism left for a fast upside move. Also, the biggest chunk of the liquidation cluster, on the short side, lies between $88,390 and $96,070. Time to see if the BTC price levels can move in that zone.
Bitcoin Price Levels That Decide If Tom Lee Is Right
For a short squeeze to begin, Bitcoin must clear specific levels.
The first zone sits around $91,220. A sustained move above this area would begin liquidating lower-leverage short positions. That alone would improve short-term momentum.
The real trigger lies near $97,820. This level has capped price multiple times since mid-November and aligns with the densest short liquidation cluster. A break above it would put most of the $3.41 billion in short leverage at risk.
If that cascade begins, Bitcoin could move quickly toward the psychological $100,380 level without needing strong capital inflows or long-term holder support. But the invalidation is clear.
If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $91,220 and continues to drift sideways, CMF weakness and long-term holder selling remain dominant. In that case, the short squeeze never starts, and Tom Lee’s Bitcoin price prediction target stays out of reach. For now, Bitcoin is stuck between conviction selling and leveraged positioning.
The prediction lives or dies on one thing only: whether shorts are forced to cover.
