Lighter airdrop expectations trigger market frenzy

The Lighter project completed the transfer of 250 million LIT tokens on December 20, accounting for 25% of the total supply. This move immediately ignited market speculation about the upcoming airdrop. Polymarket's prediction market shows a likelihood of up to 86% for an airdrop before the end of the year, with a trading volume of $9.5 million, and December 29 is considered the most likely date with a probability of about 75%.

From on-chain data, these 250 million tokens have started to be partially distributed to 20 addresses after being transferred from the deployment address to the distribution address. Currently, about 230 million tokens are still held. This batch distribution model typically indicates that the airdrop preparation work has entered its final stages, with the project team testing the distribution mechanism and address verification process.

Lighter's points system has attracted a large number of users to participate. Based on an estimated total of about 12 million points, each point may correspond to approximately 20.8 LIT tokens. This means that the airdrop value for active users could range from $40 to $140. This figure is very attractive in the current market environment, especially for early participants.

The market's expectations for the airdrop have directly driven Lighter's performance in the pre-market. Quotes on Hyperliquid are around $4.04, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation of $4.04 billion. Prices in the Binance futures market have fluctuated from $3.90 to $3.20, corresponding to a $3.2 billion FDV. Although there are fluctuations, the overall level remains high.

From a strategic perspective, Lighter's decision to conduct the airdrop at the end of the year is well thought out. On one hand, it can leverage market sentiment during the holiday season; on the other hand, it also allows for the completion of token distribution before the new year, laying the foundation for ecological development in 2026. The project's locked 3-year vesting period also demonstrates a long-term commitment.

It is worth noting that Lighter has been included in Coinbase's listing roadmap, and the contract address has been made public. This provides strong assurance for the liquidity and accessibility of the tokens after going live. Once officially listed, it could trigger a new wave of buying enthusiasm.

The airdrop distribution table will close on December 26, and the second quarter points are in the final determination stage, with identification and elimination of witch attacks and self-trading currently underway. This strict screening mechanism, while it may reduce the number of eligible addresses, ensures that real users can receive the rewards they deserve, enhancing the fairness and value of the airdrop.