Airdrop economics has become a new paradigm for project cold starts

From Lighter RateX Rainbow to Espresso, the recent intensive airdrop announcements reveal a trend: Airdrops have evolved from simple marketing tactics to the core strategy for cold starting projects. This transformation is worth in-depth analysis.

The traditional token issuance model relies on private financing, followed by public sales through IEOs or IDOs, where the community can only purchase on the secondary market. The problem with this model is that early investors have extremely low costs, and the public sale price is often several times that of the private sale price. After launch, retail investors become the ones left holding the bag, leading to a rapid price drop.

The emerging airdrop model is different; projects directly allocate 20% to 30% of tokens to real users. These users earn rewards through product usage, providing liquidity, participating in governance, etc. Their costs are time and effort, not real money. This distribution method is fairer and more conducive to building a loyal community.

Witch attacks are the main challenge faced by airdrops. One person controls hundreds or thousands of addresses to obtain multiple rewards. Lighter cleans up witch accounts and self-trading in the final stages. Although this reduces the number of eligible addresses, it protects the interests of honest users. This strict screening ensures the fairness of airdrops.

From the market performance perspective, airdrops are often accompanied by strong FOMO emotions. The 86% probability of Lighter's airdrop and $9,500,000 trading volume on Polymarket, along with the hot discussions and farming guides on social media, indicate that airdrops can effectively attract attention. This attention translates into initial liquidity and price support after the token goes live.

However, airdrop economics also carries risks. If most recipients sell off immediately, it can create immense pressure on the price. This is why many projects adopt phased releases, such as RateX's 20-30-50 distribution and Rainbow's no lock-up period but low initial circulation, all of which aim to find a balance between immediate rewards and long-term value.

In the future, airdrops may continue to evolve, such as introducing NFT thresholds, requiring on-chain credit scores, or integrating with off-chain identity verification. These innovations aim to enhance the accuracy and fairness of airdrops while maintaining the spirit of decentralization. Airdrop economics is becoming an important component of Web3 project design.