The Ethereum price remained nearly flat this week, despite many expectations. On the surface, it seems like nothing is happening. But the chart and the on-chain data tell a different story. A clear breakout structure is emerging, and at the same time, the selling pressure from long-term holders has significantly decreased.
This combination is rare. If this continues, the next big move from Ethereum could already be underway.
Inverse head-and-shoulder breakout coincides with on-chain selling decline
On the daily chart, Ethereum forms a clear inverse head-and-shoulders reversal pattern. The structure has a nearly flat neckline around the $3,400 level, which is important. Flat necklines often lead to stronger breakouts once the price rises above them.
If Ethereum closes clearly above this neckline (around $3,400), the measured move from the confirmed pattern points to a price target around $4,400. That target comes directly from the height of the head projected upwards. Technically, the setup looks clear.
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What makes this pattern even more interesting is what is happening on-chain.
The Hodler Net Position Change measures whether long-term holders are selling or buying more. Since November 26, this metric has changed significantly. At that time, long-term holders sold about 1,100,000 ETH. By December 23, this had decreased to just 54,427 ETH.
That means a decrease of more than 95% in selling pressure.
This is important because long-term holders usually sell less at significant turning points. If a breakout pattern occurs while selling pressure collapses, it often means that supply is drying up. This provides a stronger foundation for a rise above the neckline.
Simply put: the chart indicates a breakout and the on-chain data shows that fewer sellers remain.
Cost basis levels and important Ethereum price zones
The next question is whether Ethereum can really reach and break the neckline.
Cost basis data provides insight into that. Cost basis shows where large amounts of ETH were last bought. These zones often act as resistance when the price visits them again, as holders may sell around their cost price.
For Ethereum, the most important cost basis cluster lies between approximately $3,150 and $3,173. About 2,940,000 ETH have been bought in this range. This is therefore the strongest supply wall upwards.
A sustained increase above this zone clears the way toward the $3,400 neckline. This means an approximate 7% increase from the current level. Note: the $3,150 level is also visible on the price chart, making it extra important.
Above $3,400 lies the next important level around $3,480, followed by a relatively small resistance up to about $4,170.
If the momentum continues after the breakout, the full inverse head-and-shoulders target of around $4,400 comes into view.
There is still risk, and that is clear. If Ethereum drops below $2,800, the structure weakens. A drop below $2,620 completely invalidates the bullish pattern and means that sellers regain the upper hand.
For now, the chance of an increase seems greater. A clear reversal pattern, the sharp decline in long-term selling, and a clear resistance zone all point in the same direction. However, the bullish scenario mainly depends on a clear close above $3,150, where the supply wall lies.
