XRP began the last quarter under heavy pressure after a strong wave of selling wiped out much of the earlier gains. The decline in Q4 puts the altcoin on track to close negatively in 2025.
Despite this setback, there is still hope that buying activity from investors can reverse the momentum before the end of the year.
XRP holders sold at a loss
On-chain data over realized gains and losses show that sales in Q4 were particularly fierce. XRP holders exited their positions at a loss, indicating a decline in confidence. Normally, investors in large coins hold their positions during declines, hoping for a recovery instead of taking their losses.
This cycle is different. Selling at a loss indicates that there is a lot of uncertainty about XRP's short-term outlook. This behavior suggests that risk aversion weighs more heavily than long-term confidence, which has intensified the ongoing downward pressure in the quarter.
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XRP's broader performance highlights the issue. The current market cycle threatens to end two years of positive annual returns. In 2023, XRP rose by 81% and in 2024 by 238%, mainly due to more clarity around regulations and strong speculative demand.
In 2025, the momentum was actually weaker. If the current trend continues, XRP could close the year approximately 11% lower. This reversal shows that changing macro conditions and investor sentiment can break even strong trends.
Despite the decline, activity on the XRP Ledger decreased at the end of December. Network data shows that the number of active transaction addresses fell to 34,005 for the month, a monthly low. Less participation means that both small and large investors are less involved.
More transactions usually indicate higher demand. Less usage could further drive the price down due to lower liquidity and less interest based on utility. This decline at the end of the year may mean that investors are already preparing for 2026, rather than speculating in the short term.
XRP is trading around $1.85 at the time of writing, a drop of 11% since the beginning of 2025. To close the year neutrally, the token must rise to $2.10. If successful, XRP could end the year without a loss, maintaining the long-term result.
For now, the risk of further decline remains if market sentiment worsens. If XRP does not hold $1.85, the price could drop towards $1.70. Such a movement invalidates a bullish outlook and confirms a negative annual close, prolonging the uncertainty into early 2026.
A recovery is possible if the support level of $1.85 is held, along with more activity on the network. If this succeeds, the price could rebound to $1.94. It is then crucial that XRP breaks through the resistance at $1.94 and retains $2.00 as new support. Only then does the target of $2.10 come closer.
