Bitcoin has largely ignored macro signals that would normally be positive. The U.S. CPI fell to 2.7% in December, reinforcing expectations of interest rate cuts, but Bitcoin did not respond. Instead of attracting new capital, the price remained stagnant as money flowed to other places.
That difference is the reason the discussion about a Bitcoin bear market is coming back.
Jurrien Timmer, the Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, recently warned that Bitcoin may have already ended its last four-year cycle in October, both in terms of price and time. Since then, on-chain and market data increasingly point to that view.
Data signals suggest that Bitcoin may already be in a bear market
Multiple independent indicators now point to the same conclusion: capital is retreating, conviction investors are selling, and Bitcoin is taking on risk without real demand.
Stablecoin inflows have collapsed since the cycle high
Stablecoin inflows are often the signal for crypto market rallies. That fuel is now gone.
Total exchange inflows for ERC-20 stablecoins peaked on August 14 around 10.2 billion. On December 24, inflows had decreased to about 1.06 billion, a drop of nearly 90%.
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This inflow spike in August occurred just before the Bitcoin high in October above $125,000, the same period that Timmer has identified as likely the cycle top.
Since then, no new capital has come in. This reinforces the idea that distribution has replaced accumulation after the peak.
Long-term holders have become aggressive sellers
Holders with strong conviction have behaved differently since October.
The net position difference of Bitcoin long-term holders turned negative shortly after the cycle top. Sales increased from about 16,500 BTC per day at the end of October to about 279,000 BTC recently. This is an increase of over 1,500% in daily selling pressure.
This directly relates to Timmer's expectation that the four-year halving cycle likely ended in October. Long-term holders seem to agree: they are reducing their exposure instead of defending the price.
Bitcoin dominance is rising, but not due to bullishness
Bitcoin dominance has risen again to 57–59%, but this is not a positive risk signal.
After the lower CPI figures, capital did not flow into Bitcoin, but rather into traditional safe havens. Over the past year, silver rose by more than 120% and gold by about 65%. At the same time, the broader crypto markets performed much worse.
This shift supports the idea that the rising Bitcoin dominance is not due to a new rush for risk or investment, but due to capital retreating within crypto to relatively safe assets.
That position is confirmed in an exclusive market briefing to BeInCrypto from Ray Youssef, founder and CEO of NoOnes. He explains why gold is taking the lead in the 2025 devaluation while Bitcoin remains in a range.
“While gold is clearly the winner in the 2025 devaluation trade, this comparison obscures a more complex market reality. The recent rise of gold to new all-time highs and a year-to-date return of 67% reflects classic defensive investor behavior. Capital seeks security in a market characterized by excessive government deficit, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic uncertainty. Larger central bank purchases, a weaker dollar, and persistent inflation risks have further strengthened gold as the preferred defensive asset,” he said.
Youssef adds that Bitcoin's behavior this year diverges significantly from the digital gold narrative.
“Bitcoin, on the other hand, has recently not lived up to what it comes to the hedge narrative. The asset has not behaved as digital gold in 2025, mainly due to the increased sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. The upside potential of BTC is now primarily tied to additional liquidity, clarity in government policy, and risk sentiment, not just to monetary devaluation,” he emphasized.
Mega-whale addresses are secretly declining
Large holders are now also stepping back.
The number of Bitcoin addresses with more than 10,000 BTC has decreased from 92 at the beginning of December to 88. This decrease coincided with falling prices, not due to accumulation.
These addresses often belong to institutional players. Their decrease now reaffirms that smart money is not aggressively betting on a rise at this time.
Bitcoin remains below a critical long-term moving average
Bitcoin is still trading below the 365-day moving average around $102,000, a level that was last convincingly lost at the beginning of the 2022 bear market.
This moving average acts as a technical and psychological support level. If Bitcoin does not break above this, it indicates that the market is shifting from continuation to risk. If the price remains below this level, history points to deeper decline zones at the realized price band of traders around $72,000.
These signals together support Timmer's warning that Bitcoin may already be in a bear market phase, or close to it, even if the price does not fully reflect that yet. Capital has dried up, holders with strong conviction are selling, dominance is rising for defensive reasons, and macroeconomic relief is being ignored.
However, not all support levels from the long-term cycle have been broken. Those counter-signals, and the precise levels that will decide whether this becomes a real bear market or a prolonged transition, will follow next.
Why the Bitcoin bear market case is not yet fully resolved
Despite increasing signs of a Bitcoin bear market, there are still two long-term indicators that counter a complete structural decline.
Another reason why the Bitcoin bear market is not yet established is how the markets react to the cooling CPI. Normally, falling inflation is favorable for risky assets, but now safety and liquidity seem more important to investors than growth.
This does not mean that the CPI signal is wrong. It may simply be too early; historically, Bitcoin often reacts later than traditional 'hedge' assets when liquidity really shifts.
These and the indicators we discuss next do not diminish the bearish signals above. They do clarify why this phase may become a longer transitional period and not immediately a full bear market.
Pi Cycle Top is not activated
One of the most reliable cycle indicators for Bitcoin, the Pi Cycle Top, has not yet given a peak signal. This indicator compares the 111-day moving average with the 350-day moving average times two.
Historically, Bitcoin has always been at a major cycle top when these lines crossed.
Now the two lines are still far apart. This indicates that Bitcoin, even after the high in October, is not in an overheated or euphoric phase.
This contradicts the view of Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, who believed that the peak in October around $125,000 fit with previous cycles.
In previous cycles, a real bear market only began after a clear Pi Cycle confirmation. That signal is not there yet.
The 2-year SMA remains the key line
The second, more current counterargument is structural. Bitcoin is still trading around the 2-year simple moving average, which is around $82,800.
This level often serves in history as a dividing line for Bitcoin’s long-term trend. Monthly closing prices above the 2-year moving average usually meant that the cycle continued.
Sustainable closing prices below marked deep bear phases.
So far, Bitcoin has not shown a monthly closing price below this line.
This makes the monthly close of December important. If Bitcoin remains above $82,800 until the end of the year, it will likely remain a late-cycle transition rather than a confirmed Bitcoin bear market.
This means that we still have room for delayed increases in 2026, rather than prolonged declines.
If December closes clearly below the 2-year moving average, then lows towards the $65,000–$75,000 range – which Timmer pointed out – will actually gain more support.
TL;DR: Important Bitcoin price levels to watch now
The bearish scenario also has clear levels at which it becomes invalid. If the 365-day moving average around $102,000 is reclaimed, that will significantly weaken the bear market expectation. This aligns with Tom Lee’s Bitcoin price forecast for the end of the year.
That level marked the beginning of the bear market in 2022 when it was broken, and would now indicate a renewed strong trend if it is reclaimed.
Simply explained:
Above $82,800 at the December close: transition phase remains intact.
Below $82,800 on a monthly basis: risk of bear market increases.
Again above $102,000: the bull structure begins to recover.
For now, Bitcoin is between convinced selling and long-term cycle support. The market is not confirming strength, but is also not breaking down completely.
The December close will determine which narrative continues into 2026.
