Brothers! I just received breaking news that the market-making giant Jump Trading has aggressively dumped 100 million USD1 into Binance in the last 4 hours to alleviate the skyrocketing liquidity demand! Seeing this news, are you both anxious and covetous? Anxious about the 'soaring liquidity demand' and the risk of a run behind those six words, and covetous about whether this rescue will provide an opportunity to buy at the bottom?
First, let me give you a warning: this is not a market rescue, it's 'stop the bleeding'! Don't be fooled by the superficial 'capital entering the market'! Let me make my core point clear: in the short term, we can survive the panic, but the mid-term bear market backdrop hasn't changed. This rebound is just an opportunity for you to reduce your positions, not a chance to jump in and lose money! My longtime followers know that I warned about the liquidity risks of exchanges before the FTX collapse last year, advising everyone to diversify their assets. Those who listened avoided the bloodbath; this time, the signals from Binance are even more dangerous, and we must engrave the guidelines to avoid pitfalls into our bones!
The first pitfall to avoid: Don’t trust that 'big exchanges are absolutely safe'! Jump urgently deposited $100 million USD1, indicating that Binance has already shown signs of a short-term withdrawal rush. Recently, the entire market's $544 million liquidation wave has yet to be digested, with the panic index dropping to the extreme fear range of 24, and retail investors' frantic withdrawals leading to a liquidity crisis. The stupidest thing to do now is to put all your assets on one platform! Listen to me, act now, and distribute over 50% of your position across 2-3 compliant platforms, especially mainstream stablecoins; don’t hang yourself on one tree!
The second pitfall: Don't blindly chase small-cap stablecoins! The USD1 token has a circulation of just over 2.8 billion, and although its price is currently stable at $1.0019, this non-top stablecoin can detach from its peg in extreme cases! This time Jump used it to save the day, more because of the fast arrival and flexible operation, not because it is safe. The stablecoins in your hands should be primarily converted to mainstream varieties like USDT or USDC that have been tested by the market; don't even touch small stablecoins, otherwise, you may not die from a price crash but could first die from stablecoin detachment!
The third pitfall: Don’t confuse 'rescue' with 'reversal'! This $100 million USD1 is just giving Binance a breath of air; it doesn't solve the fundamental problem. The current market is already in a high-risk zone; Bitcoin has broken below the critical 365-day moving average, and long-term holders are starting to show signs of capitulation. Bitwise's CEO even bluntly stated that the bear market began in February, only masked by institutional buying. Jump's action can only temporarily alleviate panic and prevent the market from crashing, but it doesn't change the macro-level tightening of funds and the industry's bear market cycle! Those thinking of bottom-fishing with this news are likely to be treated as 'greater fools' and get liquidated!
Let me tell you again about the upcoming trends, I dare to guarantee: in the short term, within 3-5 days, the market will have a weak rebound, Bitcoin may retrace to the $90,000 level, but don't fantasize about breaking through previous highs! The core of this rebound is 'repairing panic sentiment', not 'real capital entering'. Just look at the data, recently the inflows to Coinbase and Binance have plummeted, and the overall market trading volume is diverging, indicating that no one is willing to bottom-fish with real money. After the rebound, the market will still return to a downward oscillation rhythm, unless Bitcoin can quickly stand back above the 365-day moving average; otherwise, confirming the bear market is just a matter of time!
Lastly, a reminder for both old fans and new followers: The core of survival in the crypto world has never been about how much you make, but how little you lose! In this bear market, I have already issued multiple precise warnings about liquidation waves and exchange risks; those who followed me to reduce positions and hedge have at least preserved their capital. Moving forward, I will continue to track on-chain capital flows and Bitcoin moving averages, and tomorrow I will release a special video explaining how to use the capital flow of USD1 to identify market bottom signals.
You must hold your position and not be blinded by short-term news! If you think my analysis is on point, type 'preserve capital' in the comments, follow me so you won't get lost, I'll help you survive this bear market, and we will feast together in the next bull market!@帝王说币 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
