Bitcoin Bullish Signal: Hashrate Compression
According to recent analysis from VanEck, a key contrarian indicator is flashing "bull" for Bitcoin. The network’s hashrate—the total computational power securing the blockchain—fell by 4% in the month ending December 15, 2025.
While a dropping hashrate typically reflects miner stress, VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush highlight it as a "cyclical cleansing process." Historically, this "miner capitulation" has been a precursor to significant price rebounds.
The Data Behind the Signal:
Historical Success: Since 2014, when the 30-day hashrate trend is negative, Bitcoin’s 90-day returns have been positive 65% of the time (vs. 54% when rising).
Long-Term Outlook: When looking at a 180-day horizon following hashrate compression, the probability of positive returns jumps to 77%, with average gains of approximately 72%.
This compression suggests the market may be carving out a bottom, clearing the way for a fresh leg higher as inefficient miners exit and selling pressure subsides.
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