Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has sharpened his skepticism about Bitcoin as an official reserve asset — even as he continues to acknowledge its scarcity and money-like properties. What Dalio said - In recent interviews (and a Dec. 20, 2025 public exchange picked up on social media), Dalio argued Bitcoin’s fixed supply gives it “money-like” qualities but drew a clear line about who should hold it on a balance sheet. He called Bitcoin “unlikely to be held significantly by central banks,” citing the transparency of its public ledger and the attendant risks. - Dalio warned that because Bitcoin’s blockchain is public, large custodians and reserve managers face traceability and interference risks: transactions can be traced and, in some scenarios, disrupted or blocked by outside actors. That, he says, makes it harder to treat BTC the way sovereigns treat gold. - He contrasted Bitcoin with gold, which — once removed from the formal financial system — is much harder for authorities to control. - Dalio also flagged security concerns, suggesting Bitcoin could be “cracked, broken, or controlled” in ways that would undermine its long-term store-of-value role. - On stablecoins, he gave a low mark as reserve instruments. Tied to fiat and generally non-yielding, Dalio described stablecoins as useful transactional tools but poor vehicles for long-term wealth preservation. - Personally, he holds “a little bit” of Bitcoin but still favors gold when the objective is protection from state action. Market context and outlook - Dalio’s comments come as crypto infrastructure moves closer to mainstream finance: spot Bitcoin ETFs, improved custody services and evolving market structure are shifting how institutions can access the market. - At the same time, forecasting Bitcoin’s short-term path is fraught. Analysts such as Galaxy Research and market commentators like Alex Thorn point to overlapping macro and market risks that make 2026 especially uncertain. Options markets currently price wide, roughly symmetric scenarios for 2026–2027 (e.g., equal odds of $70k vs $130k for June 2026 month-end, and similar splits for year-end targets), reflecting heightened volatility and macro sensitivity. - Despite near-term uncertainty, Galaxy Research maintains a long-term bullish view and projects Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027 — underscoring that price dynamics and policy acceptability can move on different tracks. Why it matters Dalio’s stance highlights a growing split in the industry: an asset can be attractive to markets and private investors while still being deemed unsuitable for official reserve books. For policymakers and reserve managers, traceability, interference risk and custody considerations remain critical barriers. For traders and long-term holders, macro forces and market structure may still support large price moves. Featured image: Unsplash; chart: TradingView. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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