The US ETF market achieved a historic “triple crown” in 2025, with records in inflow ($1.4 trillion), new launches (over 1100), and trading volume ($57.9 trillion). This is the first time all three goals achieved record levels simultaneously since 2021.
Three consecutive years of double-digit S&P 500 growth drove the rise. But Wall Street is starting to ask: What happens now?
The ghost from 2022
The previous event serves as a warning. The year after the triple crown year of 2021, the S&P 500 fell by 19% as the Federal Reserve implemented aggressive rate hikes. The technology-driven rise that fueled ETF inflows reversed sharply, and both inflows and launches declined in 2022.
The parallels are hard to ignore. In 2021, there was strong demand for technology companies. In 2025, AI investments dominate, while skepticism is increasing. Since October, the S&P 500 has moved sideways as Wall Street questions the returns from Big Tech's AI investments.
Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, warned: “Since this year has been so perfect for ETFs, you should almost prepare yourself.” He suggested that a “reality check” may come in 2026, either in the form of market volatility or losses in leveraged ETFs – risks already demonstrated by GraniteShares' 3x Short AMD ETP, which lost 88.9% in a single day and was liquidated in October.
Rotation of crypto ETFs
Within the broad ETF boom, a clear distinction is occurring in crypto funds.
BlackRock's IBIT attracted $25.4 billion despite a return of -9.6% – the only negative return among the ten funds with the highest inflow. Balchunas called it “Boomers showing HODL technique.” However, the trend reversed after Bitcoin's 30% fall from the peak in October. IBIT experienced five consecutive weeks of net outflow totaling $2.7 billion. Ethereum ETFs followed with seven consecutive trading days of outflow in December, totaling $685 million.
The opposite has occurred among newly launched altcoin ETFs. US spot-based XRP ETFs, which launched on November 13, achieved 28 consecutive trading days of net inflow – no other cryptocurrency has achieved this at launch. Total inflows reached $1.14 billion without a single day of outflow. Yet, the daily volume – typically $10-50 million – is modest compared to Bitcoin ETFs, which often saw daily inflows of $500 million or more in the early days.
Solana ETFs attracted $750 million despite SOL falling by 53%. In contrast to XRP, they experienced several days of outflow at the end of November and the beginning of December.
BTCETHXRPSOL Inflows so far this year $25.4B $10.3B $1.14B $750M 1.-24. Dec -$629M -$512M +$470M +$132M Note 5 weeks outflow 7 days outflow 28 days inflow Inflow despite -53%
Source: BeInCrypto
December clarified this rotation. As of December 24, Bitcoin ETFs have seen an outflow of $629 million, while Ethereum lost $512 million. XRP increased by $470 million, and Solana by $132 million.
Structural change or temporary adjustment?
Those arguing for structural changes point to regulatory clarity – XRP's SEC case was settled in August with a $125 million settlement, classifying it as a non-security. Use cases are also receiving more attention: XRP for cross-border payments and Solana's DeFi ecosystem offer opportunities beyond “digital gold.”
Skeptics warn that the inflow to XRP and SOL may be due to a “honeymoon effect” that often occurs with new ETF launches. Despite record-high inflows in the ETFs, XRP is still 50% below its July peak, and SOL has dropped 53% since October – a deviation some explain with year-end selling and whale wallets offloading holdings, which offsets institutional demand.
2026 outlook
With many crypto ETF applications still under review at the SEC, more altcoin products are expected in 2026.
The ETF market's “perfect years” will be remembered alongside warnings of correction. However, the rotation within crypto ETFs suggests that institutional investors are becoming more selective – moving beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum to assets with regulatory clarity and practical use. If this trend continues, it will be an important indicator for the direction of the market going forward.
