The fourth quarter of 2025 has become a challenging time for the crypto market, as most major assets closed the year in negative territory.
Although fear and caution dominate the market, some analysts believe that a recovery may occur. Market experts have identified three key signals that could indicate the beginning of the altcoin season in 2026.
Bullish Divergence signals indicate a potential reversal opportunity for altcoins
The first key signal is the formation of bullish divergences in the weekly charts of several altcoins, which occurs when prices continue to make lower lows while indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) make higher lows, indicating weakening selling pressure and increasing the chances of a trend reversal.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has pointed out this development, citing examples like Optimism, Arbitrum, Near, and Avalanche based on his data.
The weekly period is considered one of the strongest times for establishing this. This year is the year for the entire Web3 industry, not just commodities.
The market dominance of altcoins is approaching a breakout after several years.
The second indicator is the Others.D index, which tracks the total market share of all cryptocurrencies except for the top 10 by market capitalization.
In practice, it does not include Bitcoin, Ethereum, large-cap assets, and major stablecoins, which helps to highlight the potential of the overall altcoin market. For the Others.D analyst, it is approaching a breakout point from a multi-year descending wedge pattern.
From an analytical perspective, this structure is often interpreted as a positive signal. Typically, analysts view a breakout above the upper trend line as a sign of a return of buyers, which can lead to a reversal of the overall trend or a continued upward movement.
According to data from Bitcoinsensus, Others.D is at around 6.88%, which still has room for expansion if a breakout occurs, with analysts targeting 13.77% as the upward target.
In another post, Bitcoinsensus pointed out the recent performance of Bitcoin Dominance as a preliminary signal that could indicate the arrival of the altcoin season.
Trading volume of altcoins has increased even as prices have softened.
The final signal comes from trading volume data in centralized exchanges, where the ratio of altcoin volume (excluding the top 5 cryptocurrencies) is ‘significantly higher than during the previous cycle,’ according to on-chain data analyst CW8900.
Some say that there is no alt season right now, but on-chain data shows that trading of altcoins is more active than in any previous cycle, this analyst said.
This high activity continues even though the overall price has dropped, and retail investors are gradually exiting the market. However, market observers say
The dominance of altcoins has shifted to the whales, who are preparing to push prices higher in hopes of maximizing profits during this bull market phase.
Despite these signals, skepticism remains widespread. Amid this, Crypto Twitter has low expectations regarding the price increase of altcoins that would cover the entire market as seen in previous cycles. Furthermore, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen mentioned in October that the chances of an altcoin season occurring in 2025 or 2026 are very slim.
When positive technical signals begin to emerge alongside ongoing skepticism, the coming month will determine whether these signals will turn into a sustainable price trend or merely be unresponsive signals.