【January 6th Market News and Data Analysis】

1、#FOMC‬⁩ 1 The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 82.8%;

2、US#stocks The closing of the cryptocurrency sector rose across the board, with ABTC rising over 13%;

3、Analysis: #BTC The main reason for the rise is not due to the Venezuelan events, but driven by institutional adoption, a shift in cryptocurrency regulation, and a rebound in risk appetite;

4、The Bitcoin premium index turned positive after 22 days, with #usa the market buying interest actively entering again.

Recently, the short-term rebound in Bitcoin prices, although some analyses attribute it to the situations in the United States and Venezuela, Wall Street generally believes this explanation is too far-fetched. In the short term, the probability of interest rate cuts remains similar to last week, and the impact of the Maduro event on the rise of Bitcoin is limited to superficial fluctuations. In fact, since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024, the continuous inflow of institutional funds has been the main driving force. With major platforms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill significantly increasing their positions, the adoption rate at the institutional level has significantly increased, especially after Maduro's arrest, where institutional interest in Bitcoin has become more evident.

From a deeper macro perspective, the shift in regulatory policies and the warming of AI sentiment are also indirectly aiding Bitcoin. After the 2024 elections, the establishment of cryptocurrency-friendly regulations has injected policy dividends into the market, attracting wealth management institutions, university funds, and sovereign wealth funds to enter. At the same time, as concerns about the AI bubble dissipate, market sentiment is turning optimistic, with funds flowing back into tech stocks and risk assets. Data shows that despite the recent rebound in Bitcoin, realized losses still dominate, and the current capitulation-style sell-off may be marking the end of the adjustment cycle, laying the foundation for the next round of healthy recovery in the market.