Bitcoin (BTC) recovery at the beginning of 2026 might not last long, as new data shows increased selling pressure. Traders with long positions should therefore consider opposite scenarios to reduce risk.
Chain data shows Bitcoin whales are increasing their activity on exchanges. This is particularly risky when trading volume is low.
Bitcoin Whale Inflow Ratio increases significantly in January
One of the most concerning signs is the All Exchanges Whale Ratio (EMA14), which has now reached its highest level in ten months.
This indicator shows the ratio between the top 10 inflows and the total inflow on exchanges. High values mean that whales are currently using exchanges extensively.
Even though Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are decreasing due to demand from DCA strategies and ETFs, the sudden spike in the ratio could be an early warning. This suggests that Bitcoin balances on exchanges may begin increasing again.
"This development is occurring at the same time as Bitcoin attempts to recover from a corrective period. The pattern shows that whales want to take advantage of the buying side to lock in profits and use the market as a source of liquidity," says CryptoOnchain, analysts at CryptoQuant, in a comment.
Lower market liquidity also increases the risk of rapid price movements and higher volatility.
According to a post by Glassnode on X, the spot volume for Bitcoin and altcoins has now fallen to its lowest level since November 2023.
"The weaker demand contrasts sharply with the price increases in the market. This shows that there is now thinner liquidity behind the recent price strength," reported Glassnode.
When liquidity is low, even a small amount of buying pressure is enough to push prices up. At the same time, even moderate selling pressure can quickly lead to significant price drops.
If exchange whales begin selling as expected and liquidity is low, Bitcoin's rise above 6% and the altcoin market's total recovery of 10% could come to an end soon.
Analyst Willy Woo has also noted that Bitcoin transaction fees have dropped sharply and describes the market as a "ghost town".
Charts for the mempool and transaction fees show that chain activity is now at record lows. Both indicators have dropped significantly, indicating fewer transactions. Less activity on the chain also means weaker capital flows. This makes the market less vibrant.
Woo expects a possible short-term rally in January when liquidity reaches its local bottom. However, in the long term, Woo remains negative due to weak activity.
In the short term, some analysts believe Bitcoin could correct down to $90,000 and $88,500. These levels also correspond to a new CME gap.