Guanlan Lunjin: Gold's Volatile Drop in the Evening of 1.7, Support Level Battle Determines Future Trend

Afternoon gold continued its volatile decline, reaching a daily high near 4500 before facing strong resistance, falling to a low of 4441, nearly 50 points down from the intraday peak, showing a weak consolidation pattern with a high-to-low reversal.

From a technical perspective, the hourly MACD bearish divergence signal continues to intensify, short-term moving averages are turning downward, and 15-minute K-lines have consecutively closed in red, indicating that selling pressure remains strong. The 4440 level is a critical support for today's pullback and also the upper boundary of the previous trading range. If this level breaks, gold may further decline to the 4430-4420 range; if it holds, gold is likely to see a range-bound recovery between 4440-4470 this evening.

Fundamentally, the safe-haven sentiment from Middle East geopolitical tensions failed to sustain gold prices. Market focus has shifted to the博弈 of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The US dollar index rebounded slightly in the afternoon, suppressing gold's upward momentum. Meanwhile, after the intraday rally, a large volume of profit-taking intensified the pullback. With no new positive catalysts in the market, traders should monitor the US initial jobless claims data during the US session tonight. If the data comes in weaker than expected, it may reignite safe-haven demand for gold, and a V-shaped reversal should be watched for.

Specific gold trading strategy:

Buy gold at 4440-45, add more positions on a retracement to 4430-36, stop-loss at 4420, target 4480. If broken, continue holding. #黄金